US Daily Cash Deficit 10/16/2013

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 10/16/2013 was $7.1B increasing the October 2013 Deficit through 16 days to $57B with 11 business days remaining in the month.

10-16-2013 USDD

Revenues have managed to pull back into line with 2012….we need another +$21B between now and Halloween to get us to +10%. We’ve seen it happen before, so it is certainly possible, but it seems like a bit of a stretch.

Outlays also outpaced 2012, primarily due to the $12B SS payments that went out. It will be very interesting to see if outlays come in strong and remain elevated for the next few weeks as back pay, slow paid invoices, and tax refunds start going out and the backlog is caught up.

For the rest of the month we should see the deficit continue to creep up, with moderate daily deficits and an occasional surplus here or there. My initial estimate was a $91B deficit, which still looks reasonable, though it will depend on how strong second half revenues are and how long it takes outlays to catch back up.

Cash in hand ended at $32B. I’m not sure if Lew’s $30BĀ estimate was for end of business today or tomorrow, but close enough I suppose. I have not seen any official announcement, but it is possible that tomorrow’s report will show us the extent of EM and the lifting of the debt limit. I suppose it may take them an additional day or two though….in which case we would see it early next week.