The US Daily Cash Surplus for Wednesday 1/21/2015 was $18.9B pushing the January 2015 surplus through 21 days to $26B.
This was a very good day…The slug of taxes not withheld we’ve been expecting came in at $36B, topping last year’s $29B and finally pushing 2015 revenues past 2014 where it now sits at $+4B. That’s quite a relief…unless you were one of the folks writing those checks….I honestly would not have been surprised to see it go the other way, which would have put us in a hole to start the new year… Instead, we are at ~+2%, despite being down a day….not great, but not too shabby either.
Outlays also pick up a little bit of ground, but are still at $-19B. As discussed previously, most of this is timing…more or less we are flat. Outlays are way less volotile than revenues….so it is probably going to take a few months to see what the growth trend is, but 1-3% is a pretty safe bet. Most of the significant revenue events are now behind us….The MTD surplus will likely bounce around a bit around this level before being more or less wiped out 1/31 as timing pulls a lot of payments due 2/1 forward into January….just like last year. then..it’s on to February….which is likely to post another $200B deficit. Stay tuned…it will only get more interesting from here :)…promise.