The US Cash Deficit for 3/12/2013 was $7.1B bringing the March Deficit through 12 days to $73B.
The US Cash Surplus for 3/11/2013 was $3.2B on strong Monday revenues. The March 2013 deficit through 11 days is $66B, starting to show some divergence from 2012, but I suspect this will go away tomorrow when the 2012 GSE MBS Purchase Program Income discussed yesterday shows up in 2012, but not in 2013. (unless it does!!)
It is also worth noting that 2010 and 2011 had two additional business days over 2012/2013 through 11 days, and already had their 2nd round of SS payments go out. March 2013 refunds are running $5B over last year…not a huge variance yet, but possible evidence that they are catching up on processing refunds.
The US Cash Deficit for 3/8/2013 was $3.0B, bringing the March Deficit through 8 days to $69B.
No material breakout on either revenues or costs yet, 3/2013 looks a whole lot like 3/2012 so far. Corporate income taxes come due the 15th, which will provide a spike in revenues in the $30B range…the YOY comparison will provide an interesting gauge for what kind of revenue growth we are seeing. Also interesting, last year, on 3/12/2012, we received a $10B payment of GSE MBS Purchase Program Income. I don’t know exactly what that was, but it would not surprise me if we don’t see it this year. If we don’t, it is going to put a $10B dent in revenues and wipe out about half of the revenue gains we are expecting from the tax increases. $139B is still looking like a valid deficit forecast for now, I’d say +/-20B, but leaning to – due to some end of month timing issues I had overlooked in the initial forecast.
The US Cash Deficit for 3/7/2013 was $5.4B bringing the monthly total to $66B through 7 days, pretty much in line with last March. Things should start to get a bit more interesting next week as we have Social Security payments, Corporate income taxes, and of course…Spring Break!!…which means traffic for those us us who have to work (or are fortunate enough to have work) is going to be great!! Also, I’m sure there will be a lot of news stories about stupid college kids doing stupid things, so if you get tired of reading about the deficit and the sequester, you’ll probably have some options 🙂
The US Cash Deficit for 3/6/2013 was $3.8B, bringing the six day total to $60B. Timing is still an issue, but through 4 business days, revenues are definitely running higher than 3/2012…I will be keeping an eye on them throughout the month…especially the corporate tax payments that should hit 3/15.
