US DAILY DEFICIT

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 5/14/2013 was $3.4B bringing the May 2013 deficit through 14 days to $65B, actually $3B over 5/2013 through 14 days.

Though not perfect, 2012 and 2013 are more or less aligned again…each having 10 business days M-F x 2. This is important because revenues are highly correlated with the day of the week….with Mondays being the highest in general. So…we have a bit of a surprise in revenue…actually showing a decline of $0.6B. looking in the details, we see tax deposits withheld are up $8B, or about 11%.. Refunds are also down $2B, for a total increase of about $10B. However, this is being offset by declines in unemployment deposits from the states, federal reserve earnings, other, and TARP. Outlays are up a bit, but there is a lot of movement….Social Security payments are up $2.5B, with two more payments to go this month.

Tomorrow brings a triple whammy. A $30B interest payment, the third round of Social Security at ~$12B, and some payroll for government employees paid on the 1st and 15th…the military in particular adding another $3B. All in, a $35B deficit looks quite possible, pushing us up to around $100B for the month.

The US Cash Deficit for Friday 5/10/2013 was $4.3B bringing the May deficit through 10 days to $63B. May 2013 vs 2012 still look more or less the same on all fronts, though some of this is timing related. We’ll get another more or less synchronized snapshot this Wednesday, then on Thursday we get to see a ~30B interest payment and some corporate taxes…small, but worth taking a look at.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 5/9/2013 was $5.6B bringing the May 2013 deficit through 9 days to $59B.

May 2012 and May 2013 are essentially the same YOY… a $6B increase in taxes withheld is being offset by decreases in taxes not withheld, unemployment deposits from the states, and federal reserve “earnings”.

A few weeks ago, I mentioned here that it looked like Treasury was stockpiling cash in preparation for the upcoming debt limit showdown…they had issued debt despite the huge April surplus, accumulating nearly $214B in cash as of 4/30….a two year high. Since then…cash has dwindled back down to $97B due to the cash deficit over that time, and a net paydown of external debt of $56B..including $31B yesterday. So…whatever the reason…it no longer appears like they are going to try and hit 5/19…the day the current infinite limit expires with a huge cash balance in the $200-$300B range…though if they are going to, they still have a week to make it happen.

Finally…just for fun since I completely missed last month…I’m going to guess the May deficit comes in at $140B…just topping last year’s May deficit of $136B. Revenue will be up 10% or so, but with 6/1 on a weekend, we’ll see $20B or so of extra cost hit 5/31 pushing the deficit up for May, but being offset in June, which very well could post a surplus.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 5/8/2013 was $9.6B bringing the deficit through 8 days to $54B…edging ahead of last year…primarily related to timing….2012 is a day behind….lacking both strong Wednesday revenues and the Wednesday Social Security payment now included in the May 2013 population.