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US DAILY DEFICIT

Jul 03
0

7/01/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 7/1/2013 was $31.9B…burning through half of June’s payday loan from Fannie Mae in a single day!! Why doesn’t treasury tweet that?

07-01-2013 USDD

It’s way too early to look for trends, but we see revenue up 4%. Cost appear to be up huge…but if you recall from the June discussion, in 2012, July had about $35B shifted into June….take that out and we’re pretty even.

Looking back, July 2012 posted an $82B deficit…despite the cost shift. I’m going to guess we end up in the same ballpark…say $80B. That assumes that we’ll see about 10% revenue growth and modest decreases in outlays….more or less making up the $35B hole we are starting in. So let’s sit back and let the facts start rolling in!!

Jul 02
0

June 2013 Deficit Update

By | Daily Deficit

I’m running a bit behind schedule…what with the real job and everything 🙂 so I haven’t had a chance to put together a detailed write up for June, but I wanted to get the finals out there. So…The US Daily Surplus on 6/28 was $65.1B…thanks to the $66B “payday loan” from Fannie Mae. This brought the Monthly Surplus to $116B, a vast improvement over June 2012’s $54B deficit. Revenue up, cost down…pretty simple math. No doubt, it was a good month, but as we have been discussing all month…take out Fannie and about $65B of timing related to cost….and while it was still a good month….it wasn’t that good. Still…we’ll take it!!

Key takeaways…Tax deposits were up 9.5%. Taxes not withheld were up 16%. Corporate taxes were up 10%. Two months after the close of the January-April Tax season, excluding the Fannie Mae silliness, we see growth in net revenues stabilizing around 9% – 10%. Still…a very good number…pretty much in line with what you would expect after you raise taxes. But it does represent a material step down from the 15% we saw in the first four months of the year…recall my hypothesis…that the tax hikes drove many to pull income into 2012 to take advantage of lower rates….then they paid taxes on those gains in the first 4 months of 2013. If that is the case….rather than the 10-12% gains being expected by the CBO, 2014 could actually show declines over the first 4 months.

In any case…charts below, I’ll try to get out a more detailed analysis as time permits.

06-28-2013 USDD

Jun 29
0

6/27/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 6/27/2013 was $7.0B dropping the June 2013 Surplus down to $51B with 1 day left.

06-27-2013 USDD

Tomorrow is going to be polluted with the extra 2012 payments and the Fannie Mae Funny Money in 2013, so this may be the cleanest shot we get at the fundamentals. So from this year’s 51B surplus, I would just subtract the $35B timing benefit to get down to $16B Surplus, a $42B improvement over last year. Not bad at all really. The real question is….what are we going to see next January. In theory, given constant rates, revenues should roughly grow in line with GDP and population growth…so maybe a few percent. If we are posting sub 5% YOY growth next year, lookout!!

Jun 28
0

6/26/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 6/26/2013 was $8.7B….and was $3.8B on 6/25/2013, which I did not get a chance to post yesterday. With two days left the surplus is sitting at $58B for the month. With moderate deficits likely over the next 2 days, a $50B surplus would normally be a good estimate….not too shabby. However…supposedly a $60B or so payment from Fannie Mae is to be paid in June….though there seems to be no news on this for over a month. If it does happen, and I have no reason to believe it won’t…(it could be close to $70B with Freddie added in)…obviously the number could come in much higher…exceeding even my last guestimate of a $100B surplus by a healthy margin.

06-26-2013 USDD

Assuming nothing crazy happens(aside from the above)…never a safe assumption, Corporate taxes and withheld tax deposits are on track for 9% growth, while taxes not withheld appear to be honing in on +20%…a big swing from the -20% I was getting all worked up about last week 🙂

Jun 26
0

6/21/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 6/24/2013 was $12.6B….again on higher than expected (by me) “tax deposits not withheld”. I’m just going to get out and own this…I jumped the gun earlier this week when it appeared like we were going to see a 20% decrease in taxes not withheld….which would be a very bearish indicator for the rest of the year and beyond. By this time in 2012…taxes not withheld had slowed to a trickle at less than $1B per day. Today…we actually see an increase…from $5B Friday to $8B. Lesson learned…patterns don’t always hold. So anyway…this is good news, and the $8B of receipts pushes the YOY to a positive 10%…with 4 days to go, we could see even bigger gains, but I’m done guessing for now:)

06-24-2013 USDD

So with four days left we have net cash Revenues up a bona fide 10%…not shabby.

Outlays are down $48B, and while a good chunk of this, about $35B is timing, the rest of it looks legit so far… kinda makes me wonder if treasury is “slow paying” vendors or something. Interestingly….the end of the month should see this apparent decrease in outlays get even better. We’ve been talking about it all month….how about $35B of June 2013 cost got sucked into May because of how the weekend fell. June 2012, on the other had had the opposite issue…$30-35B of July 2012 payments went out in June….creating a temporary $65-$70B delta between the two years. We haven’t seen it yet because it happened on June 29….so it hasn’t crept into our charts yet. We’ll catch the other end of this next month…when July 2013 should end up quite a bit higher in outlays.

Fortunately, there is an easy way to filter all of this out….all you have to do is ignore the months and look at a YTD. I don’t typically post these, but I’ll throw them out there today. Through June 24, 2013 has increased revenues 13% vs 2012, while outlays are down 1%. Due to this… the deficit over the same period has dropped from $520B in 2012 to $326B in 2013, a $194B improvement. Looking forward, if the trend follows, we could see a bit more improvement on outlays, but not much…maybe 1-2%, but it’s not a sure thing. Revenues appear to be petering out….the 13% is buoyed by an extremely strong April, as the months go by, April’s weight will drop, and the average will drop. How far…I have no idea at this time. A few days ago, the data was looking like we might be headed down to 5-7% growth. Now…that is looking pessimistic….back to 10-11%?? I guess we’ll just have to wait for the data to find out.