The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 7/22/2013 was $5.4B pushing down the Monthly deficit through 22 days to $77B on typically strong Monday revenues and relatively light outlays.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for 7/18/2013 was $5.7B bringing the July 2013 cash deficit to $83B with nine business days remaining. That’s already $3B over the estimate I made at the beginning of the month and looking at historical patterns, it would be a bit abnormal to see much improvement over the rest of the month, but you never know anymore.
Revenues are still sitting on +5.5%. The extra day should be good for about+$9B…a 4% bump….so I suppose we are more or less on track for the +10% we are looking for, but August is going to be a real challenge. On cost…I think we are likely to see some real improvement by month end…(adjusted for timing of course.) Defense vendors and education look to be the big cuts so far…even interest is down about $1B…thanks ZIRP!!
The US Daily Cash deficit for 7/17/2013 was $10.3B as round 3 of Social Security payments went out totaling $12B for the day, $48.8B for the month, with one large payment left next Wednesday. Comparing this year to last looks like about an 8% YOY gain…pretty much on par.
Revenues still hovering between 5-6% YOY gain, so certainly within striking distance of the 10% we’ve come to expect. On the deficit…we are $21B worse off than last year…primarily due to timing. However…I had been expecting us to more or less match last year’s $82B deficit nonetheless…on higher revenues and lower costs. But…with 10 days left…historically we should expect to see a ~20B deficit over the rest of the month…putting us closer to $100B. I’m not changing my estimate yet, but it is looking less likely by the day.
The US Daily Cash Surplus for 7/16/2013 was $2.7B pushing the July 2013 Deficit through 16 days to $67B with 11 business days to go. Strong revenues came through… a bit odd for a Tuesday, giving 2013 the revenue bump it had been needing, now showing a 6% YOY gain…up from 0% just yesterday. All in all…a very good day…a few more of these and we’ll be back on track to continue the 10% YOY gains
The US Daily Cash Surplus for 7/15/2013 was $6.8B bringing the July 2013 Deficit through 15 days to $69B. Today was the big day for corporate taxes….they were up, but only 2% vs the comparable day last year (7/16/2012). It is possible we see some receipts tomorrow that build on that, but definitely no fireworks yet..
Revenues are now actually down just a bit, but essentially flat YOY. Mathematically…the rest of the month will need to run +20% just to end up at the +10% we have come to expect. Clearly this is possible….we’ve seen it before.