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Jul 31
0

## 7/29/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By copernicus | Daily Deficit

The US Cash Surplus for 7/29/2013 was $8.1B on strong Monday revenues and typical outlays. With two business days left, the July 2013 deficit is sitting at $88B. Tuesday normally yields a moderate deficit, and Wednesday…well, anything goes on the last day of a month. I expect revenues to be elevated, but there will also be a $5B or so interest payment…I’m more or less expecting a wash. I believe my initial estimate for the month was $80B…later revised to $90B +/- $10B (somebody correct me if I’m lying here…no time to go back and check right now). That still sounds good to me…we’ll know for sure in 48 hours.

Remember….I’ve attempted to synchronize the months based on business days…so we are actually comparing through Monday the 30th of last year. I think this gives us the most useful YOY comparison… we’ll catch the extra day this Wednesday…should be good for an extra $8B or so revenue…and cost:(

Jul 30
0

## 7/26/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By copernicus | Daily Deficit

##### The US Daily Cash Surplus for 7/26/2013 was $0.8B dropping the June deficit through 26 days to $96B with 3 business days left. It seems likely that the deficit will fall a bit further on strong Monday and Wednesday revenues and no large payments looming…. I would normally guess $5B, but it could be a bit more depending on whether or not revenues from the state come through for unemployment. Last July, we saw over $8B from the state in this revenue category…this July, we have only seen $1.3B so far. $7B seems like a pretty steep drop, though admittedly, this series is a bit difficult to predict. So…I would not be shocked if we got a $5B or so bump in addition to the $5B I would have expected. If we don’t….well that would be interesting I suppose.

Jul 27
0

## Reply to “Has the U.S. Treasury Already Exceeded the Debt Limit?”

By copernicus | Commentary, Debt Limit

##### Perhaps I’m a bit jealous here….that this guy got a Drudge link and I didn’t…but I give him a swing and a miss for not paying attention. The headline refers to the Daily Treasury Statement table III, which I happen to know something about. The author notes correctly how the debt outstanding, at $16.738T is now $39B over the 16.699T official limit. Busted…right!! Well…not really. You see, there is a small subset(about $30-40B) of the debt that is exempt from the debt limit…this is not new or newsworthy, it has always been this way…not just for the past 68 days….always.

##### Most of this exempt debt is related to the unamortized discount…currently at $32B. So…you are probably wondering….”what the heck is the unamortized discount?” Let’s take a 3 month T-Bill for example. Rather than issuing at say $100, then paying interest plus face value three months later, they are issued at a discount, say $99, then paid in full when due. That 1$ is the discount. So…while I now have an additional $100 face value of debt on the books, your accountant will say that you technically only have $99 of debt, and will incur $1 of interest over the next 3 months. That difference…currently $32B, plus a handful of other items are specifically excluded from the debt limit calculation. Why??… I don’t know…I suppose it’s in some regulation or law somewhere, but that’s just how it is, and has always been. Pointing that out now well…it really isn’t news to anyone who has been paying attention.

##### Now, that’s not to say there are not shady things going on….there certainly are….Mr. DeLegge just looking under the wrong stone. The real travesty is the use of “extraordinary measures” to essentially hide debt off of the balance sheet…probably another $100B or so over the next month. Then, when the debt limit is raised, and we all know it will be…this debt will magically, and nearly instantly be parked back on the balance sheet. Ta Da!! That magic trick deserves further scrutiny….the unamortized discount….nah…that’s just good accounting (for a change). So the answer is…No…they haven’t…yet…but they fully intend to….just not as obviously as you think.

##### So…if you want a real debt limit primer, read Debt Limit Recap Summer 2013 written by your truly without all of the glamour associated with a Drudge Link, but guaranteed to have at least twice as much credibility 🙂

Jul 26
0

## 7/24/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By copernicus | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 7/24/2013 was $9.9B pushing the July 2013 deficit through 24 days to $90B with five business days remaining. After several weeks of pulling away from 2012, 7/24 delivers an apparent 5B setback to revenue bumping us back down to 4% YOY growth. However, after further investigation, I suspect most of this is due to small timing differences…a ~4B deposit from the states is likely to come through tomorrow should put us right back up around 7-8%.

So…with a week remaining, we are at $90B. I could see this going +/-$10B from here with the big unknown being the extra day…next Wednesday. Typically, Wednesdays have pretty solid revenue numbers, but the large SS payments that go out in week 2-4 on Wednesdays typically make it a big deficit day. So outlays should run at reduced levels, but revenue…I am not sure.

Cash:

Cash in hand, at $51B is looking a bit light to make it through August…which will probably run a $125B-$150B deficit. Can Treasury pull $100B out of their magic hat??? Sure…why not?? They’ve done it before…it would be a bit naïve of me to assume otherwise….but still, I can’t help but watch…just in case something crazy happens. Even if they make it through August, they have to squeak by the first two weeks of September before revenue really starts pouring in….then October comes on strong with another nearly $100B deficit.

Jul 25
0

## 7/23/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By copernicus | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 7/23/2013 was $2.7B bringing the July 2013 deficit through 23 days to $80B with six business days remaining.

I think it is worth noting that 2013 is now within $10B of last year, despite a $35B head start due to the timing of outlays…if you recall, about $35B of July 2012 outlays due the first went out in late June because of how the weekend fell. So, in reality, we have about a $25B improvement so far…$11B on the revenue side and about $14B of reduced outlays. Is the Sequester actually working??

Of the reduced outlays, two stick out…Defense Vendor Payments through the same number of business days in July2012 were ~$26B. 2013…only $18B, a 30% and $8B reduction. Education Dept. Programs, whatever that is, was $12B last year…6.5B in 2013… a 45% reduction with about a week left. The only big event remaining this month is the final Social Security payment which went out today at ~12B that should cause a ~$5-$10B deficit when it shows up in tomorrow’s report. The remaining days should be +/- a few $B…more or less cancelling each other out absent some surprises.

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