Tag

US DAILY DEFICIT

Sep 25
0

US Daily Cash Deficit 9/24/2013

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Surplus for 9/24/2013 was $0.5B bringing the September Surplus through 24 days to $53B. Revenues from “Taxes Not Withheld” dropped from $9B on 9/23 to $4B on 9/24….stronger than the 2012 amount by $1B, but still indicating these receipts are probably trailing off.

09-24-2013 USDD

Total cash revenues for the month are now running only 3% over last year but should get a material bump on 9/30, ending somewhere between +5%-10%. Not bad, but we may pay for it with a weak October. Tomorrow, we get the final large SS payment of about $12B which will more than likely force the first deficit over $2B that we’ve had in several weeks.

Cash in hand was $55B, which we will probably see grow by $10-20B by month end, lets just say to $70B absent any “extraordinary measures (EM)”. The first week of the month is typically pretty brutal….assuming the government isn’t shut down, we would probably run a $50B+ deficit in that first week of October alone. So Treasuries 10/17 date looks good on paper. However, the CBO also came out with an estimate stating between 10/22 and 10/31. About a month ago, I had guessed early to mid November…citing the difficulty of forecasting without fully understanding what EM magic tricks Treasury had left up their sleeve. Regardless of who is correct, it does seem clear that within the next 6 weeks, either the debt limit will be raised, or we will be in for one hell of a show….maybe even both 🙂

Sep 24
0

US Daily Cash Deficit 9/23/2013

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Surplus for 9/23/2013 was $13.7B as revenues from “Taxes not Withheld” defied the historical trend for the second day in a row, posting $9.1B of cash revenue compared to the comparable year ago (9/24/2012) cash revenue of $5.7B. Last year, these revenues dried up before the end of the week, ending at only $300M on 9/28/2012. If we don’t see a similar crash over the next few days, it wouldn’t take much to handily beat the year ago revenue $ from this source.

09-23-2013 USDD

So on that strength, revenues show strong YOY gains for the second day in a row, and are now at $+7B….a 3% YOY increase with additional gains looking likely. The Monthly Surplus is now sitting at $52B with 5 business days remaining in the month. There is still plenty of upside left with the likelihood of topping $70B growing by the day(for now).

Sep 23
0

US Daily Cash Deficit 9/20/2013

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Surplus for 9/20/2013 was $4.9B pushing the September 2013 surplus through 20 days to $39B.

09-20-2013 USDD

Friday was actually a pretty good day, with Revenues gaining about $4B YOY and finally catching up with last year, ending at $+1B…good for a 0.5% YOY improvement. “Taxes not Withheld led the charge with nearly a $2B improvement, actually increasing from the prior day, where we typically expect these to start tapering off pretty heavily as all of those checks that were “in the mail” are received and cashed.

With six days left before the end of the FY, there is a bit more uncertainty left than I expected. First there are the Freddie/Fannie Dividends…which look to be about $10B higher than last year. Second is the extra day…a Monday (typically strongest weekly revenues), and finally, it is impossible to predict how “tax deposits not withheld” are going to finish the month. Were it not for these things, I’d probably guess we would see very little deficit action  over the rest of the month, ending right about a $40B surplus. However….given these outstanding items…. a $70B surplus (my initial forecast) still seems like a possibility if the stars align. If not… a bit lower.

Sep 20
0

US Daily Cash Deficit 9/19/2013

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 9/19/2013 was $1.7B bringing the September 2013 Surplus through 19 days to $34B with seven business days remaining. We are still seeing strong cash inflows from “taxes not withheld” at $5.7B, but they do appear to be tapering down, which is what we would normally expect….ending under $1B per day by late next week. As it stands today, YOY, corporate taxes are up 1%, excise taxes are up 5%, taxes not withheld are up 7%, and taxes withheld from paychecks are up 12% :(.

09-19-2013 USDD

All together, revenues made up another $1B of ground yesterday but are still $2B under  September 2012 thanks to the decrease in TARP repayments. Another day…no surprises.

Sep 19
0

US Daily Cash Deficit 9/18/2013

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 9/18/2013 was $1.5B bringing the September Surplus through 18 days to $36B with 8 business days to go.

09-18-2013 USDD

Taxes “not withheld” continue to come in strongly as expected making up the ground lost yesterday and then some…perhaps a sign that  another strong finish is on deck?? Revenues are still down $3B vs last year, but if you take out the $20B Tarp revenue from last September and it doesn’t look half bad at +8%.

Using 2012 as a guide, the last 12 calendar days of last September posted an $8B deficit, suggesting that we would end this September at a $28B surplus. However, I have to think we’ll do better than that even if we don’t see an end of month revenue surge. Between moderately higher revenues, an extra day, and some generous contributions from Fannie/Freddie, we are probably on track for a $50-$70B surplus without any surprises.