US DAILY DEFICIT

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 11/18/2013 was $11.6B on extremely strong revenues and weak outlays bringing the November 2013 deficit through 18 days down to $86B with 8 business days remaining.

And just like that…what looked just yesterday like a disappointing month for revenues is back in the mix posting $19B of revenue for the day compared to $11B for the comparable 2013 day (Monday 11/19/2012) good for a +$8B gain on the day. I honestly can’t explain this one…it’s all from withheld taxes….a series that generally doesn’t display a lot of volatility. Whatever the reason…we’ll take it. Revenues are now sitting at +8.5% YOY…in line with what we have come to expect and poised to possibly exceed expectations depending on how strong the rest of the month is.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 11/15/2013 was $29.6B driven up mainly by the large scheduled interest payments of $31B that went out. This brings the November 2013 cash deficit at the halfway point at $98B…$11B under the YOY, but still within reach of my $160B forecast. Generally…I am expecting moderate deficits and surpluses over the rest of the month netting to ~$25B, ending with a bang on 11/30 with a $35B+ deficit possible.

After a strong start….revenues have fizzled a bit over the last few days and are now standing at only +$2B, a 2% YOY gain. We’ve come to expect +10% thanks to the tax hikes at the beginning of the year, so definitely anything under 5% would be a disappointment. Don’t panic yet though…for some reason, we’ve been having strong second half of the month revenues compared to last year, so another strong kick over the next 2 weeks could get us to the +20B we’ve come to expect.

Outlays are at -$9B YOY, with little movement over the past few days, but has slipped to -4% from -7% a few days ago. I’d expect this to continue to shrink over the rest of the month, ending at -1-2%.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 11/13/2013 was $16.0B pushing the November 2013 deficit through 13 days  to $68B primarily due to~ $12B of SS payments that went out.

Revenues actually took a small step back…losing about $2B of ground against 11/2012…I suspect most of this is timing of excise tax deposits…in which case we will catch back up over the next couple of days.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Tuesday 11/12/2013 was $3.9B…pushing the November 2013 Deficit down to $52B through 12 days….virtually unchanged from the $56B deficit we posted on 11/1. Since then, it’s been a deficit here, a surplus there…more or less netting to zero. But that likely ends with tomorrow’s report as a $12B SS payment is scheduled to go out, followed by ~$30B in interest payments on Friday.

There is really no bad news in today’s DTS…revenues gained another $2B over last year and outlays were down a little. Withheld tax deposits are running at +9%…pretty much in line with expectations, while everything else is flat netted together.

The US Daily Cash deficit for Friday 11/8/2013 was $3.5B, bringing the deficit for November 2013 to $56B through 8 days.

The month continues to book solid YOY gains with Revenue being up 7% and Outlays being down 7% giving us our $12B deficit improvement so far. On deck…Tuesday’s following a holiday are always unpredictable, so we’ll find out what happened  with that tomorrow followed by a $12B social security payment that goes out 11/13 (we’ll see it in the report issued 11/14) Friday 11/15 brings in some additional tax revenues, but will be overwhelmed by a large interest payment due…~$30B. It’s still too early to know, but I have to be honest…I’m starting to get a bit nervous that my $160B full month forecast may have been a bit pessimistic, but hey…that’s a good thing right!!