US DAILY DEFICIT

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 4/25/2014 was $4.3B bringing the April 2014 Surplus through 25 days to $104B with 3 business days remaining.

With all of the major day driven events behind us, I have reverted back to syncing on day of month…so we are comparing 25 days of April 2014 to 25 days of April 2013…each with 3 business days remaining. Outlays are flat…no surprises there. Revenues are up a little less than 2%. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see some small improvement from here, which could get us to maybe a $125-$130B surplus….it really depends on how quickly the taxes not withheld drop off. Today they came it at $9B…more or less in line with last year.

So with 3 days remaining, I’m looking primarily at 2 things…

1) Taxes withheld…after being up 8% YOY for Jan-march…they are now sitting at +2%…. Is this an anomaly, or the new norm? We’ll have to wait for May to find out.

2) Medicaid…running at +14% YOY through 3 months…this is where a good chunk of the Obamacare costs are being hidden….or at least absorbed :). At $21.3B, it is certainly poised to continue the trend, but this series fluctuates quite a bit daily, so we’ll just have to wait and see.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 4/23/2014 was $1.0B breaking a string of 8 consecutive surpluses totaling $169B as elevated revenues were overwhelmed by the 4th and final SS payment of the month. At $94B, the April 2014 surplus stands just about even with April 2013 with 5 business days left in the month.

It was a good day…Taxes not withheld were up about $2B YOY…from $15B to $17B….but we’re going to need more than that to end the month with a respectable gain. If I had to call it now, I’d expect moderate revenue gains…just say 2% or so, though I wouldn’t forecast that with a lot of certainty.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Tuesday 4/22/2014 was $39.1B as the expected taxes not withheld poured in totaling $46.2B for the day, just $1B shy of last year’s $47.2B. This brings the April 2014 Deficit to $95B through 22 days with 6 business days remaining.

And there you have it….perhaps the most interesting day of the year has come and gone…and is nearly a carbon copy of last year. Total cash revenues at $47.003B vs $47.025B last year. Outlays at $7.914B compared to $7.688B on Tuesday 4/23/2013.

And so….As we entered the day, April 2013 and April 2014 are still pretty much in line except for the extra business day for 2013 giving it an additional $10B of revenue and cost.

And with that…the likelihood of my forecasted $180B surplus for the month is quite diminished….a more realistic estimate is probably something more in line with last April’s $117B surplus. There were 3 primary variables in my revenue forecast.

1) Taxes withheld would be up 10%

2)Taxes not withheld would be up 10%

3) Tax refunds would be down marginally

Through 22 days…all of these assumptions are incorrect…all are around 0…plus or minus a few.

It’s been an interesting month, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we get a few more surprises over the remaining week. Still…it’s hard to call a day where you run a $39B surplus bad….and even if it’s flat with last April….that was one hell of a month at +27% YOY revenues…maybe matching it should be considered a win in itself?? Now…if May also comes in flat…it might be time to get worried, but for now, let’s just enjoy the fact that we have a $95B Surplus…

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 4/21/2014 was $16.7B bringing the April Surplus through 21 days to $56B.

I have decided to go back to aligning 2014 and 2013 based on days of the week so our charts are comparing April 2013 through Monday 4/22 to April 2014 through Monday 4/21. 2013 has an extra business day….giving it roughly an additional $10B of revenue and $10B of cost.

Pull that out and you have 2 months that are pretty much in sync….all tied up at a $56B surplus. Same goes for the day…pretty much in sync, though taxes not withheld were up $1.6B, mostly offset by higher refunds.

Tomorrow may make or break the month…last year Tuesday 4/22 pulled in $47.2B of taxes not withheld…. A large miss here could lead to a YOY decline….a large gain could kick off a late surge…..

The US Daily Surplus for Friday 4/18/2014 was 13.1B pushing the April Surplus through 18 days to $39B.

Another OK day….but not impressive. Our YOY revenue is sitting at only +3%. Compare that to 2013 vs 2012…where through 18 days we were sitting on a +29% YOY revenue. Clearly….April 2014 is not looking like April 2013…where a 27% revenue surge set the stage for an impressive rest of year. Still…the truth is we don’t need another huge April to impress. As I discussed back then…stringing together 2 25%+ YOY gains in a row was always highly unlikely. Topping last year would be a small victory in itself, though obviously we’d prefer to do much better.

Just a few weeks ago I put forth a 13% YOY revenue gain in my $180B surplus forecast…..pretty much sticking with the +10% we’ve been seeing and adjusting up a bit for timing. I suppose that is still quite possible….but we’re going to have to see some progress quick…starting with Tuesday which should come in strong if patterns hold. Absent some late month surprises, we should have a pretty good idea how the month will end up by Wednesday…stay tuned.