The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 5/16/2014 was $7.3B bringing the May 2014 deficit through 16 days to $81B.
It was a really good day for revenue…we see a YOY gain of about $8B primarily on withheld taxes. I don’t fully understand it…maybe a YOY timing change, but we’ll take it….a $4B hole at mid month is a lot less daunting than yesterdays $12B YOY revenue shortfall…a few more of these and we’re back on track.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 5/15/2014 was $30.8B bringing the May 2014 deficit to $89B through 15 days.
Looking at our chart, we see revenue back to a -$12B YOY. Most of that can be attributed to there being one less business day…pull that out and we’re flat….which would still be disappointment. There’s still a half a month to go…plenty of time for a comeback, but clearly we are not where we’d like to be at this time….which is more or less even despite being down a day. The one bright spot so far is corporate taxes…up 7%….but only good for a $0.5B bump.
Outlays look great at first glance, but their down a day too, plus they are down a ~$13B SS payment…so they are more or less flat once you back all of that out, which is about what we would expect. By the end of the month we will definitely catch back up on SS, but end up down a little overall.
So taking stock at midpoint…outlays are more or less where I expected them to be, but revenues are looking light so far…not a good sign. If May ends up weak, that will make 2 months in a row. June is just about guaranteed to be down since last June got a $50-$60B boost from Fannie Mae that won’t be replicated. Of course we can back that out to compare the fundamentals, but we’d still be at 3 months in a row, following a terrific Jan-March. Obviously I’m getting a bit ahead of myself, but if we are indeed nearing the end of the impressive +10% revenue growth period we’ve seen since Jan-2013, things could get ugly pretty fast.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 5/9/2014 was $2.1B bringing the May 2014 deficit to $49B through 9 days.
Revenues continue to gain slowly on 2013 trimming the gap to $7B with 14 business days remaining. Just looking ahead, this Thursday the 15th may be the most interesting day of the month with a large $30B+ interest payment likely to go out, along with some corporate taxes likely to be received in the $6B range. We’ll get to see how these payments compare to last year’s numbers
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Wednesday 5/7/2014 was $5.2B bringing the May 2014 deficit through 7 days to $42B.
We don’t typically see a Wednesday surplus mid month due to SS payments going out on the 2nd-4th Wednesdays….but this is actually the first Wednesday of the month, while last year Wednesday 5/8 was the second. Because of this we have a one week timing issue that won’t resolve up until May 28…so just note that about $13B of the apparent reduction in outlays is timing.
Revenues actually were up about $3B dropping the YOY to -$8.4B vs. yesterday which was closer to $12B…rounding and such…So all together…a good day….we’ll need quite a few more of these to get revenues where they need to be by month end.
