US DAILY DEFICIT

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 7/14/2014 was $8.3B bringing the July deficit through 14 days down to $65B.

At first glance…revenues and outlays appear to have collapsed….but in reality it’s all timing. Since we’ve adjusted for day of week…2013 is a day ahead… at Monday 7/15/2014. This usually gets us a better (if still imperfect) YOY comparison, but it so happens that a lot of things happen on the 15th of a month. On the revenue side…we generally see increased revenues, but the magnitude depends on the month…quarters are much higher. For July, we can probably expect $5-10B of corporate taxes. On the outlay side…we have Military Active Duty Pay which goes out the 1st and 15th, plus we also have interest payments due…again it varies quite a bit from month to month, but this year it will probably be about $5B.

We should be more or less back in sync after tomorrow…let’s hope our revenue hole has shrunk to ~5B or so…instead of the $16B we see in today’s chart.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 7/11/2014 was $1.1B bringing the July 2014 deficit to $74B through 11 days.

Revenues slipped a bit…probably due to timing of corporate income taxes and excise taxes….so we should get that back over the next few days. Outlays were also down, roughly offsetting the revenue declines and leaving the July 2013 vs 2014 deficit unchanged at -$2B. Recall…my July forecast was for a $60B deficit…compared to 2013 at $90B….so we have a lot of ground to make up if we are going to hit $-30B. There are 14 business days remaining…so we need to average $2B a day to get there.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday  was $4.8B bringing the July deficit through 10 days to $75B.

Revenue continues to make small gains vs 2013 and is now at $-7B…but cost increases more or less match them leaving the deficit at -$2B.

The Us Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 7/9/2014 was $10.5B, following Tuesday’s $6.5B deficit, bringing the July 2014 Deficit through 9 days to $70B.

Revenues have gained a bit since the last report and now stand at $-8B vs 2013. Outlays have also gained a bit, leaving the deficit at $70B.  We’ll get some corporate taxes in next week…probably $5-10B, but other than that no big revenue events on the July calendar….To hit that magic +5%, all we need is to get to +$11B for the month, which is certainly achievable given that 2014 as presented in the analysis above has an extra business day remaining over 2013. Back of the envelope…$1B per day ought to get us there…stay tuned.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 7/7/2014 was $9.4B driven by strong revenues…typical following a long holiday weekend. This brings the July 2014 deficit through 7 days to $53B.

Unlike last month, 2013 and 2014 don’t quite line up, so starting with the above chart I am syncing up on day of the week as has become standard practice. So we are comparing July 2014 through Monday 7/7 to July 2013 through Monday 7/8. As it stands, this gives July 2013 one additional business day…which is the primary reason revenues appear down ~$10B and outlays are down ~$13B. Not to worry….2014 gets the day back at the end of the month.

For now…keep your eye on the revenue hole…~$-10B and the pace we dig out of it(or don’t). Ideally, we would be at +$10B or so by the 30th….and whatever we pick up on 7/31 would just be gravy. That said, while I haven’t done any detailed daily analysis, it seems like we typically see our gains in the second half of the month…so if we are still sitting at ~-$10B mid month…we won’t have to panic…yet.