US DAILY DEFICIT

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 9/10/2014 was $7.6B bringing the September 2014 deficit through 10 days to $49B .

While it’s still early, we do see corporate taxes and quarterly tax deposits start to pick up, and YOY they look  pretty good….so far. Corporate taxes are at +23%…though this is off a tiny base of $1.6B. Taxes not withheld are up 13%. We should see another $100B+ from these two categories over the next 2 weeks…including ~$50B of corporate taxes Monday 9/15. which will probably be enough to push us to surplus for the month.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 9/9/2014 was $4.3B bringing the September 2014 deficit through 9 days to $42B.

Through 9 days, revenues are up a solid 6%….not too shabby, though it should be noted that this month revenues are heavily weighted to the second half of the month. Still….with the extra day….through 9 days, getting close to +10% revenue looks feasible, though there is still a lot of uncertainty.

The US Daily Cash Deficit Surplus (**corrected 9/10) for Monday 9/8/2014 was $4.2B bringing the the September 2014 deficit through 8 days to $37B.

Revenues are up $1B on the day…outlays are up $1.5B…..

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 9/5/2014 was $0.6B bringing the September 2014 deficit through one week to $42B.

Revenues are looking solid through one week at about +5%. Outlays appear way up…but this is the ~$18B of Medicare that went out in late August in 2013, but early September in 2014. Other than that, we appear to be pretty much aligned. September, being a quarter end should post some solid revenue numbers reversing August’s huge deficit with a surplus….I’m guessing in the $60B range. Look for the revenue surge to start next Monday 9/15 with corporate taxes in the $50B range…followed by a steady flow of personal taxes through the end of the month.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 8/29/2014 was $17.5B bringing the August 2014 Deficit to $155B for the full month compared to $173B last year.

You may recall…I was forecasting a huge deficit for Friday, and I suppose $17.5B is a pretty big number, but I was looking for something in the $30-$35B range. In a typical month, a large Medicare payment of about $18B goes out early in the month, but I with the holiday on 9/1, I assumed it would be paid on the last day of August like it was last year. For whatever reason…it didn’t….I’m sure we will see it 9/2….

If you ignore this timing event, August 2013 and August 2014 were pretty much the same….with marginal revenues gains being cancelled out by an increase in outlays.