Tag

Daily Treasury Statement

Apr 10
0

4/8/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Commentary
The US Daily Cash Surplus for 4/8/203 was $5.8B bringing the deficit through 8 days to $60B.

2013-04-08 USDD

Just a note related to the charts…for this month only…I am including for prior years the current date+1. For example, the above has through 4/8 for 2013, but through 4/9 for the other years. I am doing this to essentially sync up 2013 and 2012 and partially eliminate the timing we typically see throughout the month. This month…it is easy…the first business day of 4/2012 was Monday 4/2…the first business day of 4/2013 was Monday 4/1. So, by including 4/9/2012, I get  not only to compare 6 business days vs 6 business days… but the same business days. Doing this if one month started on a Thursday, and the other on a Monday wouldn’t really accomplish much…but in this case I think it does. I haven’t even looked at how it affects 2010/2011, but honestly I am mostly looking at 2012/2013 anyway….So be warned…I will be presenting like this for the rest of the month.
Looking at the charts…I see two months pretty much in sync…less the much discussed cost timing issue. Still no breakout in total net revenue, but there was a slight increase in tax deposits…now looking at +5.6% YOY, being offset by refunds and a decrease in “other”. Not time to panic yet, about not seeing 10% YOY increases…give that at least a few more weeks.
Apr 09
0

4/5/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit
The US daily Cash Deficit for 4/5/2013 was $1.7B bringing the total April Deficit through a week to $66B.

2013-04-05 USDD

Today’s charts give us a glance at 2013/2012 that is more or less aligned…each has 5 business days, and a full Monday-Friday sequence (I included 4/6/2012). Notice anything? Yep…revenues are down. It’s just one week,  and there is plenty of action left, but it’s not what I had expected….which was for 2013 revenues to be over 2012 by $5-7B by now. Instead, tax deposits withheld are only up 2% while total net revenue is actually down. It may be nothing…just a timing quirk, but I will definitely keep an eye on it. If 4/15 goes big one way or another, we may not even notice, but it will be interesting if revenues are still down (or even) through this Friday 4/12. Cost is where expected, and the deficit still has a $33B hole to dig out of….stay tuned.
Apr 06
0

4/4/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit
The US Daily Cash Deficit for 4/4/2013 was $5.2B bringing the monthly total through 4 days to $65B. Revenues are flat and outlays are up…primarily due to timing issues discussed in prior posts. Enjoy the weekend!!

2013-04-04 USDD

 

Apr 03
0

4/1/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 4/1/2013 was $32.1B on $24B of revenues and $56B of outlays, including $17B for medicare and about $15B of other costs that hit in March in 2012, but April in 2013. So the timing issue that helped in March has April starting in a $30B hole, but it does seem likely that 4/2013 will have strong enough tax receipts to overcome this and exceed last year’s $59B surplus by a bit, but all eyes on revenues…we should have an idea by around 4/20. No charts today…4/1/2012 was a weekend anyway, so it wouldn’t really make any sense.

Apr 02
0

3/29/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Commentary, Daily Deficit
Here we go…the last DTS of the month, complete with a $10B surprise….an additional $10B of revenue from our good buddies at “GSE Dividends”. This is likely some of that missing revenue from earlier in the month…I guess they finally got around to cashing the check.  The 3/29/2013 Daily Surplus came in at $12.5B, and the month ended up at $94B, a full $45B improvement over last year’s $ $139B deficit.

2013-03-29 USDD

At first glance, revenues look flat, but the truth is, Corporate tax deposits were up 15% YOY and individual TD were up 12% for a combined increase of about $30B. This is offset by a decrease in TARP($15B), an increase in tax refunds ($10B) and about $5B decrease in other misc. revenues. This is good news….I have been using about 11% in my forecasts, so at least for the month, we are over performing. I won’t get excited yet…I really want to get beyond tax season and see how May-July looks…if we are still seeing 10%+ out there, it’s going to be hard to deny that we have some bona fide YOY revenue growth. Duplicating that in 2014 is an entirely different story, we’ll find out in time though.
Cost really jumps out at you with a $47B improvement, but about $30B of that appears to be just timing….costs that hit in late March in 2012 won’t hit until early April in 2013. Of course, that should give April 2013 a $30B headwind if it is going to improve upon last year’s $58B surplus, but with tax deposits  showing strong growth, a strong showing on tax day (4/15) could make it close.  That leaves a bona fide decrease in outlays of about $17B, which is quite impressive, maybe too impressive. Payments to defense vendors was down $6.3B from $33.8B to $27.5B. That doesn’t really jive with the sequester numbers I’ve been seeing, which was’t supposed to really hit until April or so…maybe they are just “slow paying” who knows…we’ll keep an eye on it. “Other also makes up a big chunk, and among the remaining categories, there is quite a bit of downward movement. It is worth noting that Social Security payments are up 9% YOY, posting a $5B increase from $55B to $60B in 3/2013. That $5B annualized means that just to stay even…we need $60B of revenue increases or spending cuts…every single year just to cover increases in Social Security.
So for a first glance, this is a better report than I expected, but it doesn’t warrant celebrations or a “Mission Accomplished” banner by any stretch. Tax deposits are definitely trending up, and outlays are more or less flat, maybe even down a smidge. If we keep this up, we may come in under the $1T deficit mark this year…maybe.