Tag

Daily Treasury Statement

Apr 17
0

4/15/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Commentary
The US Daily Cash Surplus for 4/15/2013 was $48.9B… a huge day by any measure, and a $32B improvement over 4/16 day 2012  which rang up an $17B surplus. Needless to say, $48.9B far exceeded my expectations…I double checked twice to make sure I had it right. A little googling sheds some light…tax day last year was actually 4/17, due to the 15th being on a Sunday and Emancipation Day on the 16th. (Now I remember!!) The two day surplus for the 16th and 17th last year was $56B…It does seem likely that 2013 will exceed that, but because of this timing issue, we are probably going to have to wait a few extra days for the dust to settle. Bottom line, it appears to be a very good start to this phase of the Tax season (deficit wise…not so much for taxpayers)…let’s sit tight and see how it finishes. We should continue to see healthy tax revenues for the next few weeks before we fall off the wagon again in May.

2013-04-15 USDD

Apr 16
0

4/12/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit
The US Daily Cash Surplus for 4/12/2013 was a not so shabby $7.7B. Still no major divergences from 2012…if it’s gonna happen we should see it this week. (15-19th). Using last year as a guide, we could see a weekly surplus in the $70B range, completely wiping out the current April deficit of $65B through 12 days.

2013-04-12 USDD

Apr 13
0

4/11/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit
The US Daily Cash Deficit for 4/11/2013 was $0.4B bringing the April 2013 total deficit through 10 days to $73B. This is likely the peak, as strong “tax month” revenues should continue to roll in, pushing the current $73B deficit close to the $59B surplus we saw last year.  2013 still has a $22B hole to climb out of to match or exceed 4/2012, but a combination of slightly lower outlays, strong revenues (+10% or so) and an extra business day could easily bridge that gap….or not.

2013-04-11 USDD


Apr 12
0

4/10/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Commentary
The US Daily Cash Deficit for 4/10/2013 was $9.5B bringing the April Deficit through 10 days to $73B. We do see tax deposits continue to edge up, now about 6% over last year, but net revenues are only up 3%. Not that it matters in the big picture, but it is worth noting that 4/2013 will have one more business day than 2012, which should help revenue a bit at the end, but hurt cost. There is one promising metric…Taxes not withheld from paychecks…for example taxes due paid by check (because you didn’t withhold enough) are up 17% compared to last year, good for $2B. It’s not much in the big picture, but if we extrapolate it, it could mean some big revenue gains next week… or it could mean nothing at all.

2013-04-10 USDD

Apr 11
0

4/9/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit
The US Daily cash Deficit for 4/9/2013 was $2.8B pushing the April deficit through 9 days to $63B. Revenues are starting to pick up a bit…I guess not everybody is waiting until the 15th, but no significant pattern changes over last year…still sitting at 5% YOY revenue increase. Expect a large deficit tomorrow with round 2 Social Security Payments..then sit and wait for the 4/15 number next Tuesday. I have a few drafts in process I hope to put out in the meantime to keep it interesting…no promises though… in real life I’m a corporate accountant knee deep in quarter end close 🙁

2013-04-09 USDD