The US Cash Surplus for 8/19/2013 was $3.1B pushing the August 2013 Deficit through 19 days down to $97B with 9 business days remaining in the month. Revenue continues to make gains…inching to within $3B of last year. I expect continued gains, but with 9 business days left, getting to +10% is going to be a challenge, but not impossible.
The US Cash Surplus for 8/16/2013 was $3.5B bringing the August 2013 deficit through 16 days to $100B with 10 business days remaining. Revenues finally caught a break…making up $8B of the $13B deficit vs. last year we had as of the last report. At 4% down, it would be a safe bet that steady ground will be made up over the rest of the month…I am forecasting we get up to around +5%, but willing to be pleasantly surprised.
For the coming week, the deficit will be moderate, maybe $15B-$20B +/- as Monday and Friday will likely post surplus, offset by deficits Tuesday-Thursday. No real action on the schedule from what I can see, so we will just keep our eye on the YOY revenues as we march toward the end of the month.
The cash deficit for 8/14/2013 was $7.4B bringing the August 2013 deficit through 14 days to $65B.
On the outlays side we have a very large timing issue regarding the $30B of interest payments….they are in the 2012 amounts already but will not show up in 2013 until tomorrow, so don’t get too excited yet about the apparent $60B decrease in outlays. Another $12B of the variance is SS timing that won’t get flushed out until 8/28.
Still no material improvement on the revenue side, though we should get a ~$3B pickup from corporate taxes tomorrow. The excise taxes we missed yesterday did flow through and are in line with last year…up less than .5%…or +$16M so it doesn’t look like we are going to get our +10% from there. 12 business days to go…$32B of ground to make up to get to 10%. We have witnessed several surprisingly strong finishes in the last few months, so clearly it is possible….but becoming less likely by the day. My current forecast only has us getting to +5%…I will probably take a closer look sometime next week to determine if any revisions are needed.
The US Cash Surplus for 8/12/2013 was $6.8B on typically strong Monday revenues including a $2B cash inflow from the IMF. No clue what that was for, but it helped the monthly revenues increase from $10B down to $7B down(vs Aug-2012)…with 14 business days to go. Just yesterday I said we needed to average $2B per day from here out to hit the +10%…so there you go. We’re saved right 🙂 $3B down, $27B to go.
The US Cash Deficit for Friday 8/9/2013 was $0.5B bringing the August 2013 Cash Deficit through 9 days to $59B. With 15 business days remaining, we are $10B under where revenue was last year and need to get to +$20B to hit our 10% growth target….so $2B per day gain… I suppose it is possible, but looking less likely…stay tuned. So far this month no real surprises other than revenues being a bit weaker and outlays being a bit lighter than expected. I see no reason yet to alter my outlook for a $155B cash deficit to end the month.
