Daily Treasury Statement

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 6/11/2014 was $4.5B, following Tuesday’s $5.0B deficit, and bringing the June 2014 deficit to $28B through 11 days…though we should see this turn to surplus by early next week.

There are no major changes over the last two days, but Wednesday’s Taxes not withheld was at $3.3B compared to $2.6B last year…a nice little bump….I don’t know if that’s a good sign for the $30B or so we should see next week, but we’ll take it. Other than that, revenues for now are still pretty much stagnant and sitting at +2%.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 6/9/2014 was $5.4B bringing the June 2014 deficit down to $18B through 9 days.

June 2014 continues to move pretty much in lockstep with June 2013. For the day, revenues were up about $400M…outlays were up about $600M. There really isn’t much interesting going on until the end of the week when we should start seeing corporate taxes trickle in before spiking Monday 6/16. Individual income taxes not withheld will also start trickling in, spiking in the middle of the week. So by Wednesday of next week, we should have a pretty good idea if we are going to see any big changes in revenues. Until then…it looks like more of the same.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 6/6/2014 was $3.0B bringing the June 2014 Deficit through 6 days to $24B.

Through our first week of June, Revenues are up 2%, outlays are up 5%. The outlays spike seems to be driven primarily by May interest payments that slipped into June…pull them out and we’re pretty much even.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 6/5/2014 was $4.0B bringing the June deficit through 5 days to $21B.

Once again…we see the YOY 2013 vs 2014 very close resulting in minimal changes….how boring 🙂

First a look back at May, where I initially forecasted a $133B deficit…$11B short of the actual at $144B….So not great, but not anywhere near my $55B miss in April.

June is typically a strong revenue month as quarterly corporate and personal income taxes start flooding in after the 15th of the month. Because of this, there can be quite a bit of volatility. Last June posted a whopping $116B surplus on strong revenues, and a $60B payday loan from Fannie Mae. We won’t get another Fannie Mae bump this year, but it should still be a good month…I am predicting an $85B surplus for June 2014. Excluding Fannie Mae…revenues should be up on an extra business day, favorable timing, and moderate underlying growth. Outlays will also be up a bit for the same reasons.