Daily Treasury Statement

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 6/19/2014 was $2.3B bringing the June 2014 surplus through 19 days to $61B.

Revenues take a small $1B step back and outlays continue creeping up at +$0.7B. The last major unknown for the month is the GSE (Fannie/Freddie) dividends which are paid quarterly. Of course last June…those added up to $66B…including $50B of special dividends. We won’t see a number that high, but last quarter still had $17B…which is probably a decent estimate, but I have seen a few reports indicating it may be $3-4B lower than last quarter…I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 6/18/2014 was $0.6B, leaving the June 2014 Surplus at $64B through 18 days.

Revenues continue to be solid…up another $2B while outlays were up $1.5B. Revenues are currently at +6%, so with the extra business day, we are certainly within striking distance of +10% if we exclude last year’s Fannie Mae payments. This is a good turn of events…especially if it rolls into July.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Tuesday 6/17/2014 was $8.1B pushing the June surplus through 17 days to $64B.

It was another good day for revenues, which gain another ~$2B as another $1.1B of corporate taxes came in with withheld taxes gaining as well. Curiously, taxes not withheld was down from $12.3B a year ago (6/18/2013) to $11.8B, but this could just be timing. Recall that my initial forecast was for an $85B surplus….for now, I don’t see any reason to change that.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 6/16/2014 was $70.2B following Friday 6/13/2014’s $16.9B surplus, bringing the June 2014 surplus to $56B through 16 days….$3B higher than this point in June 2013.

It was definitely a good 2 day stretch with revenues gaining $8B, with about $6B of that being corporate taxes, and the balance being withheld taxes. Total revenues are now up 5%, and the timing is favorable for further gains.

Corporate taxes are now more or less behind us and stand at $66B vs $62B last year…up 7%.Up next are quarterly tax payments…captured on the DTS as “taxes not withheld”. They are already up 10%…from $13B to $14.3B…we’ll likely see another $40B before the end of the month.

At the midpoint…thanks to healthy corporate tax receipts…June does not appear to be headed for the same disappointing revenue # like April and May which together averaged about +1%. It will still end down thanks to last June’s Fannie Mae payments, but backing those out, and adding an extra day….we are on track for a good month…so far.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 6/12/2014 was $3.4B bringing the June 2014 deficit through 12 days to $31B.

No material changes in the big scheme of things…small gains are being made on revenues…now at +2.6%…..but those small gains are being overwhelmed by moderate increases in outlays. Through 12 days, revenues are up $2.5B….outlays are up $7.4B…and so the deficit is up $4.9B as we approach the midpoint.

We have a few interesting days coming up….Friday and Monday should be heavy on corporate taxes…perhaps $50-$60B. However….the USDD will be on summer vacation….there may be a Monday post (covering Friday)…but it may be delayed until Tuesday if the margaritas are good. Definitely back in the office Wednesday with lots of interesting things to discuss.