The US Daily Cash Deficit for Monday 11/17/2014 was $15.6B as strong revenues were offset by $33B of interest payments. No shock here, though the interest was about $2B over last November’s 11/15 payment of $31B. YOY, the public debt outstanding is up $634B, so moderate increases are to be expected. Last I checked, the effective rate of marginal debt was a little less than 2%….which pencils out to $12B per year in additional interest expense….chump change in the big picture.
Since our last report, revenues have gained about $6B YOY, and outlays have gained $3B, which net out to a $3B improvement. Revenues are currently sitting at +4%, but I think they will likely take a step back this week since last year on Wednesday 11/20 there was a $6B TARP Payment that bumped revenues up….I don’t expect it to repeat, and while $6B isn’t a huge number, it’s big enough to bump of back down to even for the month….for now anyway. There are 8 business days remaining with the most interesting aside from the last day of the month looking to be Wednesday 11/26, when we get the final large SS payment of the month, and a look at YOY and MOM growth. For those that remember them…I’m hoping to do another SS enrollment update, but I’m still waiting on the October report. There was a time when they were generally ready around the end of the month they covered, but now it seems like we have to wait another 3-4 weeks.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 11/12/2014 was $16.9B bringing the November 2014 deficit through 12 days to $31B.
Not a lot of change yet… Revenues are at $-1B and outlays are at $-37B. I told you it would be a slow month 🙂
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 11/7/2014 was $3.6B bringing the November 2014 deficit through one week to $19B.
For the day revenues were up a bit, as were outlays, so no real YOY movement. Revenues are at -$3B and Outlays at -$37B due to reasons discussed in previous posts. there’s not a lot of excitement on the schedule for the rest of the month…it should just be a slow build up to a ~$75B or so deficit. As always…revenues will be of interest…specifically the YOY % gain, as will Medicaid/Medicare/SS growth.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 11/4/2014 was $4.2B following Monday’s $12.6B deficit and bringing the November 2014 deficit to $17B through 4 days.
No real surprises early in the month. As is typical, I have adjusted the days to sync up 2013 and 2014 based on days of the week rather than straight day of month. So the chart above is comparing November 2013 through Tuesday 11/5 to November 2014 through Tuesday 11/4. This results in 2014 being behind one business day…a handicap it will retain for the remainder of the month.
Revenue starts off the month down just $3B….not a bad start considering we are down a day. To hit +5% we’ll need to get to +10B….10% will require +$20B.
Outlays are off a lot…down $40B, but I would guess $30B is timing….the costs that were pulled into October, and $10B is the missing day. I am not expecting this to change….while November 2014 will end up light on costs due to timing…November 2013 actualy got a double whammy…getting the typical monthly costs plus December 2013’s share…. It’s hard to say with certainty, but November 2014 outlays could be down $60B. This actually happens quite a bit, and is just one of the curveballs that can throw off the monthly analysis.
Of course….timing issues don’t affect our new YTD charts nearly as much as they resolve themselves within a day or two….and are part of a much larger base anyway. Our YTD revenues are up 5.3% and outlays are up just 0.9%.
Looking forward to the full month…I’m guessing we’ll end up around a $75B deficit for November 2014 compared to a $143B deficit a year ago. Timing is the big difference holding cost down, while revenue should be up 5-10% again if the trend continues. November’s gain is December’s loss however…expect a bit smaller surplus than December 2013’s $55B, though i won’t put out an official guess until early December.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 10/31/2014 was $43.5B bringing the October 2014 deficit to $113B for the full month.
I don’t have time for a full analysis, but the bottom line is that revenues were up $23B good for a 10% uptick. Even if some of it was likely one time events…cash is cash. Outlays were up $42B and 13% primarily on month end timing issues as outlays due 11/1 were pulled into 10/31 because of the weekend. The size of the timing event was more than I expected primarily on higher than anticipated Medicare outlays…pushing the monthly deficit all the way to $113B….honestly I was expecting it to end up a bit under $100B, which was my initial forecast for the month.
So revenues posted their second consecutive month of strong revenues in the +10% range….very interesting. If we see it continue through November and December we may have something to be optimistic about….maybe. Outlays were higher than I expected with a sizable surge for Medicare…it will be interesting to see if that continues. Combined, SS, Medicare and Medicaid are at $1.433T through 10 months of 2014 compared to $1.306T in 2013. That’s a $127B and 10% increase. Even if everything else stays flat…we clearly need a huge amount of new revenue each year just to stay even. Fortunately for us…that’s exactly what has been happening…let’s just hope it never stops 🙂