May 2014 Update: Social Security Enrollment

The May 2014 numbers are in and we added 114k people to the SS rolls compared to 124k in May 2013.The total consolidated enrollment now stands at 58.589M…good for 18.41% of the population receiving an average of $1187 per month.2014-06-28 May SS Analysis

We can see what appears to be stabilization for four months now just a bit over a 1.1M annual rate of increase. I keep an eye on this series to catch a material change in the enrollment trend….in particular the beginning of another spike like we saw in 2008-2010. Clearly…we don’t see that this month. In fact, it’s not even clear that the stabilization is a trend…yet.

As of May 2014…the rate of change in SS EFT cash outlays was +$50B annualized. This is down from a peak of $65B in Dec 2012, but it’s still a big number….requiring $50B of new revenues each year just to keep the deficit even. That hasn’t been a problem in the last year…with revenues gaining at a $300B+ rate, but this is unlikely to be the case forever.