So…admittedly…my April forecast was a bust….my projection of a $180B surplus was $55B too optimistic as I overestimated revenues and underestimated tax refunds.
But now it’s time to get back on the horse. May is typically a high deficit month as Revenues fall off a cliff and a big chunk of interest payments go out. Last year, for all of April 2013’s glory at a $117B surplus…May 2013 came along and completely wiped it out with a $159B deficit.
My guess for May is going to be $133B deficit. I have revenue gains at only 6%….I have adjusted down a bit due to the weakness we saw in April, and some unfavorable timing for May 2014…primarily one less business day. Outlays I actually have down 3% primarily due to a spike in “other” last May well above the average I’ve been using in my forecast. This category is fairly volatile, so I’m not sure if that spike was something seasonal that will repeat itself or if it was a one time hit, but I’ll stick with the more conservative number for now.