The June 2014 numbers are in and show an 11k drop in SS rolls….from 58.586M at the end of May to 58.575M at the end of June. This represents the first drop in nearly 4 years, but it isn’t a huge surprise. The truth is, June and July are seasonally weak months. I don’t exactly know why, but most of the change seems to be the categories related to minors…maybe graduating seniors get dumped off the rolls each summer?? Reductions in minors offset a 75k increase in retired workers pulling the overall population down. Last June and July came in at +13k and +3k respectively, so while a reduction in the rolls is certainly a good thing….it represents a 24k reduction in the annual rate of gain….that rate still stands at 1.106M.
Perhaps the chart can add a little perspective. It’s certainly not bad news though. The 4 month plateau we were discussing last month looks like it is giving way to a continued reduction in the annual rate. There is a good chance we will see further reductions next month, followed by an uptick leading into the fall.
All in all…I don’t see any dire warnings in this data indicating a 2008/2009 spike is on the way….so Party On!!….for now.