Let’s start out with a look back at June where my $85B Surplus forecast was $7B over the actual at $78B. Not too shabby….our model seems to have settled in and is giving us a +/-$10B range….though it is prone to an occasional bust like we saw in April(+55B).
July is a typical Deficit month…last year posting a $90B deficit on $220B of revenues and $310B of outlays. This year, I’m forecasting the July deficit comes in a bit lower at a $60B Deficit on solid revenue gains and outlays being down a bit…primarily timing of interest payments. Of course…the key here is cautiously optimistic revenue growth…if it comes in at 1% my forecast will be a bust.