Analysis of the Deficit, Fiscal Cliff, and US Debt
Daily US Deficit For 2/5/2013
The US Daily Deficit for 2/5/2013 was $9.4B bringing the February total through 5 days to $64B. Refunds are running $8B below last year, so they really haven’t ramped up yet…give that another week or two. Keep in mind that as part of the methodology, tax refunds are subtracted from revenues. So while a typical month may average around $250B per month in revenues, February usually comes in around $80B. It’s not perfect, but it does all work out in the end. Think of it this way…all year long, true revenue is being overstated as people pay in more than they should be (usually). Then, every February-April everyone pays their taxes and trues up their balance…getting a refund if it is due, or writing a check if necesary. That’s just how the cash flows, so it’s how I report it. Anyway…hopefully that preempts a lot of questions on why “revenue” is so low this month. I will also take a look at unadjusted revenues to see how it compares to year ago to see if we can still see that $20B or so increase. Charts are below…don’t read too much into them this early in the month, but the deficit is pretty much in line with last year and ignoring the delayed refunds, revenue is too.