Analysis of the Deficit, Fiscal Cliff, and US Debt
Daily US Deficit For 1/11/2013
The US Daily Surplus for 1/11/2013 was $0.7B bringing the total deficit through 11 days to $47B, $4B under 2012. At this point, there are no statistically significant trends, in fact, adjusted for working days, 2013 is pretty much spot on with 2012. Due to the way the weekends and the MLK holiday falls in 2012 vs 2013, it’s going to take another week or two before we have a good idea where Jan-2013 is going to land. Further complicating it all, as discussed in an earlier post, Tax refunds are going to be delayed by a week, which will likely push about $5-10B of deficit out of January and into February. Ignoring any debt limit issues, there could be reduced refunds in February as well, but that’s more difficult to model so we’ll just have to wait and see.