Analysis of the Deficit, Fiscal Cliff, and US Debt
Daily US Deficit For 1/10/2013
The US Daily Deficit for 1/10/2013 was $5.2B bringing the monthly total to $48B, $6B ahead of 2012 through 10 days. It is still too early to know much at this point in the month, but both revenues and outlays pacing ahead of last year. Timing issues abound, but are primarily contained within the month. Yesterday I took a wild guess on the reason for an upcoming revenue spike mid month we have seen in the past two years. After glancing at the calendar, it occured to me that it could be related to the upcoming Martin Luther King Holiday. The holiday is on Monday, so it seems possible that you could get two days of revenue in one, creating the appearance of a spike. I’m not completely convinced this is the sole reason…the Jan. spike appears a little larger in magnitude that what we see the Tuesday after Memorial Day or Labor Day… MLK day is a little later in the month than last year, which should provide the data we need to determine the true cause. The “Debt Limit Cushion” is currently at $43B, still on track to be exhausted early Feb…in fact I’d put at 2/1, a Friday which should have heavier than usual outlays. due to the way the weekend falls. That is a mere 3 weeks away, and I have barely heard a peep from congress on this, so it could go down to the wire.