The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 12/4/2014 was $6.2B bringing the December 2014 Deficit through 4 days to $66B.
As is typical, I have taken the liberty of adjusting by days of the week in an attempt to sync up 2014 and 2013 to give us a little bit more accurate picture of the YOY. This means that we are comparing December 2013 through Thursday 12/5/2014 to December 2014 through Thursday 12/4/2014. Both have 4 business days (Mon.-Thur.), so we are just about as synced up as we can get, though 2014 will get one additional business day at the end of the month which should boost YOY revenues….and outlays.
Through 4 days, December revenues look strong at $+4B…. an 10% early month lead. Outlays are up $37B, but most of that can be chalked up to timing…last December had a big slug of 12/1 outlays get pulled into November….
No real swings in the YTD…revenues have nudged up a bit to +5.3% and outlays are at +1.1%. This deep into the year, we are unlikely to see much change in those %
Looking forward to the rest of December…this is typically a good revenue month as are all quarter end months as we get some quarterly payments…corporate taxes in particular. Just for reference, November just came in at about $210B of cash revenue…..I’m expecting December to be in the $340-$360B range. April is the highest month of the year…posting $425B of cash revenues in 2014. While we have started the month with a pretty large deficit, revenues should start pouring in around the 15th and remain elevated….pushing us to a surplus by month end. I’m not feeling quite as lucky for this prediction, but after nailing November at $75B, hopefully you guys will cut me some slack because December is quite a bit trickier. I’m going to be an optimist and assume revenues come in at around +10% thanks to the extra day and the trend. However….GSE dividends are due this month and they aren’t looking so hot YOY. I saw a this article in the Washington Times that indicates the payment will be in the ballpark of $8B. This is up a bit from last quarter when they were only $5.6B, but down big from last December when they were $39B thanks to the well documented Tax Asset Silliness… That was a one time shot, which will hurt the YOY, but it’s not really a surprise. Add it all up and I’ll put my SWAG at a $30B surplus for the month compared to last Decembers $54B on timing, GSE dividends, and otherwise strong revenues.
The US Daily Cash Surplus for 11/28/2014 was $4.4B bringing the November 2014 deficit for the full month to $75B…which curiously enough is exactly what I predicted here. I love it when I’m
right lucky 🙂
Revenues ended up at $210B, besting 2013 by just $4B and 1.6%. That’s a little disappointing coming off 2 straight months in the ~+10% range, but we were down a business day, so it’s not too concerning, and a beat is still a beat.
Outlays were down huge at $-66B, but we can chalk that all up to timing….about $30B or so which we’ll see with the 12/1 DTS.
For the full year through 11 months, Revenues are sitting at +$145B, good for a 5.2% YOY improvement. That’s a damn good number….well except for the fact that we’re paying it 🙁 . Nonetheless, it’s definitely good for decreasing the deficit, and I’ll take +5% all day long….we should hope 2015 brings more of the same.
Outlays appear nearly flat at $+4B, but again, some $30B of this is timing that will drop back in with the 12/1 report. Adjust for that, and we’re at about +1%. Again….it’s a pretty good number….I’m just not sure how long it will last.
All together, 11 months in, 2014 is looking like another solid year and we will record our 5th straight year of deficit improvement ending up somewhere between $550B and $600B as December will most likely record a moderate surplus.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 11/19/2014 was 9.2B bringing the November 2014 deficit to $62B and the 2014 YTD deficit to $609B.
As expected revenues have pulled back to even as last year’s TARP revenue failed to come through this year….not a surprise.
Outlays continue to slowly gain on 2013, now at -$31B, though other than Medicaid at +20%, nothing is really sticking out. $75B is still looking like a fairly reasonable estimate for the full month, though we’ll have to wait for 12/1 to find out.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Monday 11/17/2014 was $15.6B as strong revenues were offset by $33B of interest payments. No shock here, though the interest was about $2B over last November’s 11/15 payment of $31B. YOY, the public debt outstanding is up $634B, so moderate increases are to be expected. Last I checked, the effective rate of marginal debt was a little less than 2%….which pencils out to $12B per year in additional interest expense….chump change in the big picture.
Since our last report, revenues have gained about $6B YOY, and outlays have gained $3B, which net out to a $3B improvement. Revenues are currently sitting at +4%, but I think they will likely take a step back this week since last year on Wednesday 11/20 there was a $6B TARP Payment that bumped revenues up….I don’t expect it to repeat, and while $6B isn’t a huge number, it’s big enough to bump of back down to even for the month….for now anyway. There are 8 business days remaining with the most interesting aside from the last day of the month looking to be Wednesday 11/26, when we get the final large SS payment of the month, and a look at YOY and MOM growth. For those that remember them…I’m hoping to do another SS enrollment update, but I’m still waiting on the October report. There was a time when they were generally ready around the end of the month they covered, but now it seems like we have to wait another 3-4 weeks.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 11/12/2014 was $16.9B bringing the November 2014 deficit through 12 days to $31B.
Not a lot of change yet… Revenues are at $-1B and outlays are at $-37B. I told you it would be a slow month 🙂