The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 1/14/2014 was $5.2B bringing the January 2015 deficit to $21B through 14 days.
Revenue, at -$21B does not appear to have made much progress. $7B can likely be chalked up to timing of corporate taxes…that will sync back up tomorrow. Being down a business day doesn’t help either, but we’re not going to get that back. I’d guess adjusted for timing, we are at about $-10B. So it looks like a weak start, but there is still plenty of time for upward movement, especially next week when we should see $40B or so of “taxes not withheld”
Outlays also appear to be down at -$26B, but again, timing explains most of it. 2015 is down a SS payment….that’s about $14B. There is also about $5B of interest that will catch back up tomorrow, and as with revenues, we are down a day.
As it stands, adjusted for timing, both revenue and outlays look to be a little light YOY, but nothing extraordinary….yet. We should have a better idea on revenues by the end of next week…if we haven’t caught back up by then, getting to over +5% on the month is going to start looking like a long shot. For reference, January 2014 had revenue growth of about +10% vs 2013 both at the midpoint and at month end.
The US Daily Deficit for Thursday 1/8/2015 was $4.5B bringing the January 2015 deficit through 8 days to $27B.
As is standard practice, I have attempted to sync up the current year with the prior year based on day of the week, which drives many, but not all of the revenue and payment cycles. So the charts above compare 2015 through Thursday 1/8 to 2014 through Thursday 1/9. Because of this, 2014 has an extra business day, a difference it will retain for the rest of the month.
Revenues through 8 days stand at $78B, $8B under 2014….we can probably chalk this up to one less business day. Assuming revenue continues to grow at 5%+ into 2015, we should see this shrink over the coming week and go positive, hitting +15B to+20B by the end of the month.
Outlays are at $105B, $18B under 2014. This can be chalked up to the extra business day, and the timing of SS payments this month. SS payments of about $13B go out the 2-4 Wednesday of the month…in 2014, the second Wednesday was 1/8, in 2015 the second Wednesday is 1/14. These won’t sync back up until the end of the month, so just keep that $13B in the back of your mind.
Now for my January forecast. December didn’t turn out so well….my optimistic forecast of a $35B surplus missed the actual $14B surplus by $21B. January is typically a low deficit month as tax revenues pick up while tax refunds don’t really kick off until early February. I’m going to throw my dart at a moderate $20B deficit to kick off the year. Stay tuned…
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 12/31/2014 was $3.0B bringing the December Surplus to $14B and the full year 2014 deficit to $607B…a $102B improvement over 2013’s $709B cash deficit.
I’ll have more next week, but for the year, revenues were up 5.2% and outlays were up 1.6%. 2014 was the 5th straight year of deficit reduction, though at $600B….it’s clearly still nothing to brag about.
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 12/29/2014 was $14.7B bringing the December 2014 Surplus through 29 days to $17B with just two days remaining.
Revenues are more or less back in sync after being disrupted by the holiday timing. They sit at +10%, or $29B, which should be enough to hold onto 2014’s lead over 2013 even as 12/31 Fannie/Freddie payments fall way short of last year. The last two days of the year look to be quite volatile, so I hesitate to guess, but that is what you guys pay me for, so my feeling is that my initial forecast of a $35B surplus is going to be a bit optimistic. Anything is always possible, but tacking on another $18B of surplus in the next two days seems like a bit of a stretch. I’d guess we actually stay fairly close to where we are as elevated revenues should be offset by increased outlays….so maybe only a $10-$20B surplus for the month when all is said and done.
Of course that puts the annual cash deficit at right about $600B for the year, which makes the math easy….
perhaps a $130B YOY improvement (**1/2/2015 edit…math fail…please ignore this…should have used 2013 Final at $709B…not FY 2013 through 364 days) vs 2013….down quite a bit from 2013’s nearly $400B improvement on tax increases and the corporate raid of Fannie/Freddie… Still, improvement is improvement…we’ll take it.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 12/24/2014 was $5.2B bringing the December 2014 Surplus through 24 days to $2B with 4 business days remaining.
Revenues continue to impress and while they are distorted a bit by the timing of the holiday…as of 12/24 sit at +20% vs 2013 with 4 business days remaining in both 2013 and 2014. This will likely come down a bit by the end of the month due to reduced YOY Fannie/Freddie payments, but an impressive revenue month is still pretty much a done deal. Of course….outlays are up primarily due to timing at +24%. The YTD charts paints a bit different picture…revenues up 6.4%, outlays up 1.6%. Lets do it again in 2015… shall we??
I haven’t done a bottoms up forecast for 2015, but my preliminary thoughts are that outlays will continue trending up, probably breaking through +2% YOY. Revenue is highly unpredictable, but I would imagine strong growth to continue at least through the April tax season….after that 5% or so seems like a safe bet for now.