The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 1/26/2014 was $9.5B bringing the January 2015 surplus through 26 days to $40B with four business days remaining in the month.
Revenues have continued to gain, and are now at +$9B, good for +3% so far. Outlays are about where we left them at $-17B, though they should get about $13B of that back Wednesday with the final SS payments for the month. Putting it all together…as long as I have the timing right, I’d guess we will still end up with a small deficit by month end….$0-$10B or so….
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Wednesday 1/21/2015 was $18.9B pushing the January 2015 surplus through 21 days to $26B.
This was a very good day…The slug of taxes not withheld we’ve been expecting came in at $36B, topping last year’s $29B and finally pushing 2015 revenues past 2014 where it now sits at $+4B. That’s quite a relief…unless you were one of the folks writing those checks….I honestly would not have been surprised to see it go the other way, which would have put us in a hole to start the new year… Instead, we are at ~+2%, despite being down a day….not great, but not too shabby either.
Outlays also pick up a little bit of ground, but are still at $-19B. As discussed previously, most of this is timing…more or less we are flat. Outlays are way less volotile than revenues….so it is probably going to take a few months to see what the growth trend is, but 1-3% is a pretty safe bet. Most of the significant revenue events are now behind us….The MTD surplus will likely bounce around a bit around this level before being more or less wiped out 1/31 as timing pulls a lot of payments due 2/1 forward into January….just like last year. then..it’s on to February….which is likely to post another $200B deficit. Stay tuned…it will only get more interesting from here :)…promise.
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 1/16/2015 was $6.7B bringing the January 2015 deficit through 16 days to $6B.
Revenues make a big jump over our last report suggesting the major timing issues have resolved leaving us at $-4B with 9 business days remaining. this is a much less daunting position than the $-21B we showed on the last report. A solid gain for the month is definitely still within reach for the month, but highly dependent on the receipt of unwithheld taxes this week. Last year, Wednesday 1/22 had $29B of receipts….a beat or miss of that tomorrow will probably be the primary driver for this month’s revenue performance for the rest of the month.
Outlays are currently at $-19B…$13B or so which is SS payments. The rest is likely just the remnants of the one fewer business day, and possibly payments to defense vendors running a little bit behind last year. I did realize today that a $6B interest payment due 1/31 will likely go out February 2 instead…which will pull down the January deficit a bit and push February up. This wasn’t adjusted for in my initial forecast, but is now.
From here, we will likely jump to a surplus over the next two days before sliding back toward $0 +/- a few by 1/31, which should post a sizable deficit.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 1/14/2014 was $5.2B bringing the January 2015 deficit to $21B through 14 days.
Revenue, at -$21B does not appear to have made much progress. $7B can likely be chalked up to timing of corporate taxes…that will sync back up tomorrow. Being down a business day doesn’t help either, but we’re not going to get that back. I’d guess adjusted for timing, we are at about $-10B. So it looks like a weak start, but there is still plenty of time for upward movement, especially next week when we should see $40B or so of “taxes not withheld”
Outlays also appear to be down at -$26B, but again, timing explains most of it. 2015 is down a SS payment….that’s about $14B. There is also about $5B of interest that will catch back up tomorrow, and as with revenues, we are down a day.
As it stands, adjusted for timing, both revenue and outlays look to be a little light YOY, but nothing extraordinary….yet. We should have a better idea on revenues by the end of next week…if we haven’t caught back up by then, getting to over +5% on the month is going to start looking like a long shot. For reference, January 2014 had revenue growth of about +10% vs 2013 both at the midpoint and at month end.
The US Daily Deficit for Thursday 1/8/2015 was $4.5B bringing the January 2015 deficit through 8 days to $27B.
As is standard practice, I have attempted to sync up the current year with the prior year based on day of the week, which drives many, but not all of the revenue and payment cycles. So the charts above compare 2015 through Thursday 1/8 to 2014 through Thursday 1/9. Because of this, 2014 has an extra business day, a difference it will retain for the rest of the month.
Revenues through 8 days stand at $78B, $8B under 2014….we can probably chalk this up to one less business day. Assuming revenue continues to grow at 5%+ into 2015, we should see this shrink over the coming week and go positive, hitting +15B to+20B by the end of the month.
Outlays are at $105B, $18B under 2014. This can be chalked up to the extra business day, and the timing of SS payments this month. SS payments of about $13B go out the 2-4 Wednesday of the month…in 2014, the second Wednesday was 1/8, in 2015 the second Wednesday is 1/14. These won’t sync back up until the end of the month, so just keep that $13B in the back of your mind.
Now for my January forecast. December didn’t turn out so well….my optimistic forecast of a $35B surplus missed the actual $14B surplus by $21B. January is typically a low deficit month as tax revenues pick up while tax refunds don’t really kick off until early February. I’m going to throw my dart at a moderate $20B deficit to kick off the year. Stay tuned…