Analysis of the Deficit, Fiscal Cliff, and US Debt
April 2013 US Cash Deficit
Just a quick post to record the finals…more detailed analysis to come… The April 2013 Cash Surplus rings in at $117B compared to a $59B surplus in April 2012. The main story all month was revenues…up $87B…a 26% increase. Taxes withheld were up 10% as expected, but corporate tax receipts were up 27% and tax deposits not withheld were up a whopping 40%…or $56B. The revenue increases were somewhat offset by a $29B increase in outlays primarily related to timing.
So what does it all mean? Are we saved? Should we stop worrying about the deficit? Absolutely not. While it shouldn’t be dismissed, in the big picture, this is one month, and one $58B improvement…compared to an annual deficit still likely to be north of $850B, and debt outstanding of $16.8B. Give me two straight years of 26% growth and I’ll be forced to re-evaluate my central thesis. For now, it’s time to appreciate an admittedly impressive month, then sit back and see how the rest of the quarter turns out.