The Daily Cash Surplus for 8/7/2013 was $5.3B pushing the August 2013 deficit through one full week down to $52B.
Revenues lost a bit of ground today…last August about $9B of revenues came from TARP payoffs….we’ve been averaging only $2B per month in 2013, and it won’t be long before that gets down to zero. We are back to -$12B…we need to be at +$20B by the end of the month. We could get there…I haven’t crunched the numbers, but it does seem like compared to last year, the month’s seem to start out weak and end strong. I don’t know what could be behind the evolving pattern, but it is definitely something to keep in mind this early in the month.
Outlays appear to be down quite a bit, but $12B of that is related to the timing of SS payments…2013’s round two won’t go out until next Wednesday 8/14…last years went out 8/8 (which is included…as discussed in the 8/1 USDD). Other than that…there is one less day, and given the end of month timing, outlays for August 2013 should come in $40B or more under last year