Analysis of the Deficit, Fiscal Cliff, and US Debt
4/16/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit
The US Daily Cash Surplus for 4/16/2013 was $24.4B pushing April 2013 to a surplus of $8B, now $1B ahead of last year through the same number of business days. Strong revenues is the big story here with the haul over the last two days exceeding the same period last year by $19B. Looking at the month to date, net revenue is up $24B, good for a 14% increase. Corporate tax deposits are up 27%, and tax deposits not withheld are up 25%.
Surprisingly, tax deposits withheld are only up 2%, which is a trend we saw earlier in the month as well. If that doesn’t end the month a lot closer to 10%, it could be a red flag that part of the sizable revenue increases we have seen in 2013 are not sustainable, and are just a one time spike caused by income being pulled into 2012 to avoid the 2013 tax hikes. The test will be May-June, which are far enough away from 2012 and tax season that we should be able to use them as our first clear YOY snapshot. If we still see across the board revenue increases over 11%-12% in May-June, it would provide some indication that at least for now, the 2013 tax hikes have some staying power. If instead we see a steep dropoff, watch out, because the CBO is projecting 11-12% annual revenue growth for 2013-2015. If they are wrong, every forecast you’ve heard from both sides of the aisle about deficit reduction over the last few months can be junked.