Analysis of the Deficit, Fiscal Cliff, and US Debt
3/12/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit
The US Cash Deficit for 3/12/2013 was $7.1B bringing the March Deficit through 12 days to $73B.
Hmm… As expected, the GSE MBS Purchase Program Income payment of $10B counted in 2012 revenue has not come through again for 2013, resulting an a pretty big swing from yesterday’s YOY. Other than that, the two years are about as aligned as they are going to be until the end. Costs are flat and excluding the GSE income, we are pretty flat on revenue….increases in tax revenues are being offset by increased refunds. I am still expecting a YOY improvement…March 2012 had about $25B of April Payments pulled into 3/31 due to the way the weekend fell….2013 will not have this issue…those payments will go out 4/1, resulting in a favorable YOY timing issue that will work itself out in April. We still have a lot of days left in March, but through 12 days, we definitely are not seeing huge improvements YOY, or any improvement….which is going to be necessary if we are ever going to materially break through this $1T per year deficit paradigm.