The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 7/28/2014 was $11.5B bringing the July 2014 deficit to $77B with 3 business days remaining.
It was a good day for revenues thanks primarily to a $4.079B inflow from “Customs and Certain Excise Taxes”. It’s definitely odd…looking through my data…this one day payment exceeds every other whole month going back to 12/99 except one…12/2012…which came in $4M higher at $4.083B. I have no clue what it was…30 seconds worth of Google searches failed me (Obamacare fees??)….but clearly we will set a record in this category this month.
So revenue is sitting at +$6B…and looks like it should hit or exceed 5% growth for the month, but it is worth noting that taxes withheld are looking pretty flat….with all of the gain coming from one time events and corporate taxes. We’ll take growth wherever we can find it…but I’d prefer we saw it in stable categories.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 7/25/2014 was $0.4B leaving the July deficit virtually unchanged at $88B with 4 business days remaining.
Revenues were down a bit and outlays were up. If patterns hold…we appear to be headed for an ~$80B deficit compared to my initial $60B guess. So what happened?? Outlays are surprisingly strong despite favorable timing…and revenues are under what I had expected, though they do seem like they may come in at about +5%
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 7/24/2014 was $7.8B bringing the July 2014 deficit through 24 days to $88B.
No real change in overall YOY revenues or outlays, though there was a $3B Medicaid payment that pushes us to $24B for the month…with 5 days remaining. It looks quite likely we will break a record set back in Dec-2010 at $27.8B. But unlike 2010, which was a one time spike…this is starting to look like a very bad trend…let’s just hope it stabilizes somewhat next year…
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 7/24/2014 was $8.4B bringing the July 2014 deficit to $80B with 6 business days remaining.
That revenue timing issue we discussed yesterday has resolved, pushing us back to +$4B for the month. Looking to last year, the deficit over the last week of the month was negligible with surpluses and deficits netting out. If that continues…we would end this month $20B over my $60B deficit forecast and $10B under last July’s $90B deficit. I really don’t know, but I’d be more inclined to guess we drift down a bit from here (because I’m an optimist 🙂 )….but down to $60B seems highly unlikely….maybe $75??
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 7/22/2014 was $4.6B bringing the July 2014 deficit through 22 days to $72B.
Revenue takes a step back YOY….about $1.5B, but it looks like timing to me, so we should pick it back up soon. Outlays continue to edge up….it is starting to look quite likely that July 2014 outlays exceed July 2013…despite a $6B timing benefit. it’s nothing especially alarming…but I would guess we are getting close to a point where total outlays start to grow again after being on a plateau at ~$3.8T for the last 4-5 years. Over that time, we have seen growth in SS/Medicare/Medicaid being offset by cuts elsewhere. Sooner or later…those “cuts” are going to bottom out/plateau…and the growth in SS/Medicare/Medicaid is going to start pulling is back toward $4T. If/when revenue growth starts to falter….we will quickly see a reversal in the deficit improvement we have seen for 5 years now. just a recap…the trailing twelve month (TTM) deficit topped out at $1.8T in 9/2009….and has steadily fallen ever since sitting at ~$600B as of the end of last month. That’s still a huge unsustainable number, but at least it’s not $1.8T….baby steps right?