The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 6/20/2014 was $0.0B….actually $38M, leaving the Surplus for the month virtually unchanged at $61B. Revenues were up about $1B….that’s good. Outlays were up about $2B…not so good.
Posting may be light this week, but I’ll try to get them out if I have time. So far, it looks like the theme of the month is…Revenues not quite as devastating as feared….outlays are curiously strong. Netted together…not much change.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 6/19/2014 was $2.3B bringing the June 2014 surplus through 19 days to $61B.
Revenues take a small $1B step back and outlays continue creeping up at +$0.7B. The last major unknown for the month is the GSE (Fannie/Freddie) dividends which are paid quarterly. Of course last June…those added up to $66B…including $50B of special dividends. We won’t see a number that high, but last quarter still had $17B…which is probably a decent estimate, but I have seen a few reports indicating it may be $3-4B lower than last quarter…I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 6/18/2014 was $0.6B, leaving the June 2014 Surplus at $64B through 18 days.
Revenues continue to be solid…up another $2B while outlays were up $1.5B. Revenues are currently at +6%, so with the extra business day, we are certainly within striking distance of +10% if we exclude last year’s Fannie Mae payments. This is a good turn of events…especially if it rolls into July.
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Tuesday 6/17/2014 was $8.1B pushing the June surplus through 17 days to $64B.
It was another good day for revenues, which gain another ~$2B as another $1.1B of corporate taxes came in with withheld taxes gaining as well. Curiously, taxes not withheld was down from $12.3B a year ago (6/18/2013) to $11.8B, but this could just be timing. Recall that my initial forecast was for an $85B surplus….for now, I don’t see any reason to change that.
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 6/16/2014 was $70.2B following Friday 6/13/2014’s $16.9B surplus, bringing the June 2014 surplus to $56B through 16 days….$3B higher than this point in June 2013.
It was definitely a good 2 day stretch with revenues gaining $8B, with about $6B of that being corporate taxes, and the balance being withheld taxes. Total revenues are now up 5%, and the timing is favorable for further gains.
Corporate taxes are now more or less behind us and stand at $66B vs $62B last year…up 7%.Up next are quarterly tax payments…captured on the DTS as “taxes not withheld”. They are already up 10%…from $13B to $14.3B…we’ll likely see another $40B before the end of the month.
At the midpoint…thanks to healthy corporate tax receipts…June does not appear to be headed for the same disappointing revenue # like April and May which together averaged about +1%. It will still end down thanks to last June’s Fannie Mae payments, but backing those out, and adding an extra day….we are on track for a good month…so far.