May 2014 Update: Social Security Enrollment

The May 2014 numbers are in and we added 114k people to the SS rolls compared to 124k in May 2013.The total consolidated enrollment now stands at 58.589M…good for 18.41% of the population receiving an average of $1187 per month.2014-06-28 May SS Analysis

We can see what appears to be stabilization for four months now just a bit over a 1.1M annual rate of increase. I keep an eye on this series to catch a material change in the enrollment trend….in particular the beginning of another spike like we saw in 2008-2010. Clearly…we don’t see that this month. In fact, it’s not even clear that the stabilization is a trend…yet.

As of May 2014…the rate of change in SS EFT cash outlays was +$50B annualized. This is down from a peak of $65B in Dec 2012, but it’s still a big number….requiring $50B of new revenues each year just to keep the deficit even. That hasn’t been a problem in the last year…with revenues gaining at a $300B+ rate, but this is unlikely to be the case forever.

US Daily Cash Deficit 6/26/2014

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 6/26/2014 was $4.3B bringing the June 2014 surplus to $61B with 2 business days remaining.

2014-06-26 USDD

We’ve enjoyed an almost perfectly synced up 2013 vs. 2014 for just about the whole month, but with GSE dividends incoming, and an extra business day for 2014, we are about to see some major divergences over the next 2 days….meaning that the above chart… comparing 6/1/2013-6/27/2013 against 6/1/2014-6/26/2014 is pretty much the closest YOY comparison we are going to get.

Revenues are up $18B so far good for a 6% YOY gain. Our base….taxes withheld from paychecks is solid at +5% so far…not the +10% we saw all last year, but a big improvement over the +1% we saw between April and May. If I were Obama…I’d take +5% all day long. Taxes not withheld are up $6B for an impressive 12% gain. Corporate taxes are also up $6B…good for a 10% gain. I won’t know for sure until the month ends, but I’m guessing that there are some “Other” revenue streams down pulling down the average.

On the outlay side, they are sitting at +$9B, a 4% gain, though $6B of this is due to May interest payments slipping into June. Still….a gain….largely driven by SS, Medicare, and Medicaid which combined look like ~+$12B…with Medicaid being the largest gain….more on that when we get the finals.

The surplus…now at $61B, will likely grow from here as GSE dividends are received Monday, probably pushing us into the ballpark of $80B. We’ll know by Tuesday afternoon where this all ends up, but for now…June looks to be an ok month with the main plus being that the extremely disappointing revenue gains we saw over April and May did not hit a 3 month streak. Outlays look to end up….perhaps marking the beginning of a trend, but it will be many moons before we can confirm that.

US Daily Cash Deficit 6/24/2014

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 6/24/2014 was $3.0B bringing the June 2014 Surplus through 24 days to $74B.

2014-06-24 USDD

Revenues up a bit, outlays down a bit, adding up to a $1B gain for 2014 over 2013. There are only 4 business days remaining in the month, but still some uncertainty about exactly where the surplus will end up. I am expecting$10-15B of deficit over the next 3 days, offset by a sizable surplus Monday….I just don’t know how big…it will likely be between $15-$25B. So…I guess $somewhere between a $70B surplus and a $90B surplus….let’s just call it $80B, compared to last June’s $116B surplus.

Still…some solid revenue numbers have been put up so far. Withheld taxes are up by 5.5%, Corporate taxes are up 8.5%, and taxes not withheld are up 12.6%, and all will get a bump Monday from the extra business day, putting +10% within reach for all…though overall revenues will be down due to Fannie Mae’s June 2013 accounting gain distribution. Then…it’s on to July….where maybe we’ll find out whether the anomaly was April/May at 1% revenue growth…..or June at ~10%…. Or maybe July will just split the difference and leave me confused for a few more quarters.

US Daily Cash Deficit 6/23/2014

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 6/23/2014 was $15.9B bringing the June 2014 surplus through 23 days to 77B with five business days remaining.2014-06-23 USDD

Another good day for revenues gaining another $2B while outlays fall $1B YOY fo a$3B overall improvement. This is likely our last day of large taxes “not withheld” with $8.8 vs $7.9B a year ago. They will likely fall to a trickle by the end of the week.

Looking at the whole month…revenues stand at +6%…outlays at +5%. We’ll have to wait until month end to be certain, but it is looking like aside from the $6B of interest that was pushed from May into June…Medicaid and Medicare are going to be a big part of the increase in outlays. Medicaid at $21.3B has already surpassed last June’s full month at $21.1B and there are still 5 full days left, with a ~1B daily run rate, topping $25B looks likely, which would be an 18% YOY gain. Medicare also looks a little hot, running a few $B over last year