May 2014

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 5/15/2014 was $30.8B bringing the May 2014 deficit to $89B through 15 days.

Looking at our chart, we see revenue back to a -$12B YOY. Most of that can be attributed to there being one less business day…pull that out and we’re flat….which would still be  disappointment. There’s still a half a month to go…plenty of time for a comeback, but clearly we are not where we’d like to be at this time….which is more or less even despite being down a day. The one bright spot so far is corporate taxes…up 7%….but only good for a $0.5B bump.

Outlays look great at first glance, but their down a day too, plus they are down a ~$13B SS payment…so they are more or less flat once you back all of that out, which is about what we would expect. By the end of the month we will definitely catch back up on SS, but end up down a little overall.

So taking stock at midpoint…outlays are more or less where I expected them to be, but revenues are looking light so far…not a good sign. If May ends up weak, that will make 2 months in a row. June is just about guaranteed to be down since last June got a $50-$60B boost from Fannie Mae that won’t be replicated. Of course we can back that out to compare the fundamentals, but we’d still be at 3 months in a row, following a terrific Jan-March. Obviously I’m getting a bit ahead of myself, but if we are indeed nearing the end of the impressive +10% revenue growth period we’ve seen since Jan-2013, things could get ugly pretty fast.

No time to comment today…Enjoy!!

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 5/9/2014 was $2.1B bringing the May 2014 deficit to $49B through 9 days.

Revenues continue to gain slowly on 2013 trimming the gap to $7B with 14 business days remaining. Just looking ahead, this Thursday the 15th may be the most interesting day of the month with a large $30B+ interest payment likely to go out, along with some corporate taxes likely to be received in the $6B range. We’ll get to see how these payments compare to last year’s numbers

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Wednesday 5/7/2014 was $5.2B bringing the May 2014 deficit through 7 days to $42B.

We don’t typically see a Wednesday surplus mid month due to SS payments going out on the 2nd-4th Wednesdays….but this is actually the first Wednesday of the month, while last year Wednesday 5/8 was the second. Because of this we have a one week timing issue that won’t resolve up until May 28…so just note that about $13B of  the apparent reduction in outlays is timing.

Revenues actually were up about $3B dropping the YOY to -$8.4B vs. yesterday which was closer to $12B…rounding and such…So all together…a good day….we’ll need quite a few more of these to get revenues where they need to be by month end.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 5/6/2014 was $2.2B bringing the May 2014 deficit through 6 days to $47B.

For starters…I have synced up on days like I typically do…so we are comparing May 2013 through Tuesday the 7th to May 2014 through Tuesday the 6th. 2014 is down one business day…and will remain that way for the entire month. Being down one business day, 2014 revenues and outlays are running under 2013 as we would expect.

Keep an eye on Revenues…currently at -$12B….we are hoping to get to +$13B by the end of the month….look for slow but steady progress. As I mentioned in my last post…the odds are already kinda stacked against May (and June…but we’ll discuss that later) so I’m preparing myself to be disappointed.