The US Daily Cash Surplus for 6/18/2013 was $5.7B as we got our first good glance at June “taxes not withheld” at $12.3B. There are still a few days of heavy inflows on deck, but at this time, we are down $6B, or 20% from last June. That’s not a good sign, but I’ll give it a few more days before I call it.
As it stands…the charts don’t look that bad…let’s walk through it. Net revenues are up $9B, which sounds good, but it’s only a 5% increase…our baseline is at 12%. Cost, on the other hand, look to be down an amazing $46B. Of that…$30B is timing related to 6/1 payments going out in May. $12B is related to social security payments…that should catch back up tomorrow…and the rest is because I have an additional business day (6/19) for 2012. This more or less sync’s up the months/days and since June 2013 is going to have one less business day anyway….I feel this is a more accurate presentation of the data.
All this leads to an apparent $55B YOY improvement in the deficit, and we haven’t even received the $60B payment from Fannie Mae yet. But if we back out the cost timing and social security payment, and we are really looking at a $13B improvement so far….not impressive at all compared to what we saw between January and April. We have 8 business days to go….it will be interesting to see where we end up. Two disappointing months in a row (backing out one off revenues and outlays) is not a trend line we want to be on but it is looking more and more likely.
The US Daily Cash Surplus for 6/14/2013 was $17B as corporate taxes started flowing in. Though due 6/15…with the 15th on Saturday, $14B of corporate taxes flowed into federal coffersa day early…expect another $30-$40B before the week is out.
At first glance…the charts look fairly impressive but a lot of this is timing due to a lot of corporate tax payments being made 6/14 that were made 6/15 last year. This should all flush out in a few days. On the cost side….adding back in the $30B we’ve been discussing for a while shows that cost is still flat….no surprises there.
Tomorrow’s report (for today) should show the majority of the remaining corporate taxes we will see in June. Through 5 months, 2013 corporate taxes have been running about 20% over last year….seeing how June compares to that rate should be a very interesting indicator.
Didn’t really miss a whole lot…the above chart shows the daily deficit for the six days I missed.
Above is our standard chart for 6/13. Nothing is really in sync, but we have revenue up $12B for a 13% YOY increase. It looks impressive, but I wouldn’t put too much faith in that…yet. If it still looks like that at the end of this week after all the quarterly tax receipts are in…it will be an impressive number.
Costs are down $31B….just about all due to timing…adjusted for that, we are pretty much flat. And of course the deficit follows these…a $42B improvement….which should only get better with the rumored $60BFannie Mae payment….
We should see ~$50B or so of corporate taxes and $30B+ of tax deposits “not withheld” over the next week…so surpluses are on the way…what we are really interested in is the YOY changes. +12% is kind of a baseline…anything under this would be disappointing.
Just to keep you guys in the loop….I’m on vacation starting now, returning on or around 6/17….just in time for things to start getting interesting with corporate taxes and quarterly tax deposits. If I have a chance, I may post a quick update or two…but no promises.