The US Daily Deficit for 11/15/2012 was $30.9B on revenues of $12.6B and spending of $43.5B. The primary driver was interest expense totaling $29.9B. Remember… we are using cash accounting here, so we catch these interest payments when the cash goes out the door, unlike accrual accounting, where you would be recognizing the interest expense as it was incurred. Halfway through November, our deficit is running about $9B over last year. Last year, the total deficit was 142B for the full month. Since we are pretty much on track with last year, I’ll stick to that, and add an adjustment of $28B for a wild guess of $170B deficit for November 2012. Most of this adjustment is to account for December SSI payments that will go out 11/30 this year since 12/1 is on a weekend, the rest is just a plug to get me to a round number.
For 11/13/2012 the US government ran a surplus of $1.0B on revenue of $12.8B and 11.8B of expense. Don’t expect this to carry into tomorrow though. Social Security benefits go out the second, third, and fourth Wednesday’s of the month, so tomorrow’s report will likely have us at a $10-$15B daily deficit for 11/14. Quick math…that’s almost $50 per person in the United States….$250 for a family of 5. Yikes!! Maybe I should eat in tonight 🙂
Just a note, the DTS are typically released the following business day at 4PM EST. The deficit for last Friday, 11/9 was $4.8B on revenue of $5.3B and spending of $10.0B. Yes..these are rounded. Here’s how the month is looking through 9 days:
Through 9 days, the November deficit is $68.7B, an $8.8B improvement over 2011. Don’t get too excited yet. Revenue and cost are highly variable, and fluctuate depending on the day of the week and payment schedules.