The US Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 7/22/2014 was $4.6B bringing the July 2014 deficit through 22 days to $72B.
Revenue takes a step back YOY….about $1.5B, but it looks like timing to me, so we should pick it back up soon. Outlays continue to edge up….it is starting to look quite likely that July 2014 outlays exceed July 2013…despite a $6B timing benefit. it’s nothing especially alarming…but I would guess we are getting close to a point where total outlays start to grow again after being on a plateau at ~$3.8T for the last 4-5 years. Over that time, we have seen growth in SS/Medicare/Medicaid being offset by cuts elsewhere. Sooner or later…those “cuts” are going to bottom out/plateau…and the growth in SS/Medicare/Medicaid is going to start pulling is back toward $4T. If/when revenue growth starts to falter….we will quickly see a reversal in the deficit improvement we have seen for 5 years now. just a recap…the trailing twelve month (TTM) deficit topped out at $1.8T in 9/2009….and has steadily fallen ever since sitting at ~$600B as of the end of last month. That’s still a huge unsustainable number, but at least it’s not $1.8T….baby steps right?
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 7/21/2014 was $2.5B bringing the July 2014 deficit through 21 days to $67B.
For the day…YOY revenues were flat with outlays gaining about $3B mostly on Medicare and Medicaid. Medicaid now sits at $19.442B, just ~$3B shy of the full month of July in 2013 at $22.744B. With 8 days remaining, and a run rate a bit over $1B a day…$27B is quite possible. That’s nearly 18% YOY growth for the month, but to put it in perspective….that’s about $50B per year annualized…or about the same annualized $ growth we are seeing out of SS…a program nearly 3 times the size of Medicaid.
That said….as long as revenue keeps growing at a +5% rate…the deficit will continue shrinking…just not as fast as it has been. And that’s why I watch revenues so closely… If we get 3-4 months in a row of minimal revenue growth….it’s time to start getting worried(more). April-May was close…but June was ok after adjustments for Fannie, and July looks to be over 5%
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 7/18/2014 was $4.3B following Thursday’s $4.1B deficit, leaving the deficit relatively unchanged since my last report at $70B.
The first thing to note is that 18 days in…2014 revenue has finally zoomed past 2013…thanks in part to a $4.3B receipt from the Justice Department. Last July only had $547M for the full month…I can only assume this is somehow related to the multibillion dollar bank settlements we’ve been reading about for the last week or so. None of this was in any of my forecast…so it’s pure upside.
Chalk this up as another good day…hitting and exceeding that 5% revenue growth # I’ve been talking about is starting to look quite likely with 9 business days left in the month.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 7/16/2014 was $2.0B bringing the July deficit through 16 days to $70B with 11 business days remaining.
Thankfully…it turns out that revenue shortfall I discussed with the 7/15 deficit was apparently timing…apparently there is some withheld taxes due on the 16th…about $8B worth, which added to healthy Fed Reserve
earnings gets us back down to -$3B, which isn’t bad at all considering we will pick up an extra business day at the end of the month. Of course the same goes for outlays….which at $10B short now, appear to be on track to equal last year.
All together…it was a good day. We appear to be back on track to have a decent month…nothing phenomenal…but better than disastrous. Corporate taxes are standing at +12%, which is only good for $1B….but we’ll take it. In other news…Medicaid still appears to be running hot….perhaps at a 15% growth.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 7/15/2014 was $2.8B bringing the July 2014 deficit through 15 days to $68B.
Revenue stands at -$13B vs2013…well short of the $-5B I had hoped/dreamed about just the other day. Corporate Income Taxes did come in as expected…$6.8B worth, but were offset by unexpected (by me) reductions in withheld taxes and “other”. I suppose it could be timing still, but it doesn’t quite look like it. If it’s not…hitting that +5% target just got a lot harder…